FuelCell Energy, Inc. FCEL
FuelCell Energy remains structurally unprofitable with quarterly trends deteriorating — Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 29.4% YoY to $33.0M while gross profit worsened sequentially to -$24.5M from -$5.9M in Q1 FY2026, and FY2025's gross margin of -16.7% confirms the company loses money on every dollar of sales. The stock trades at 8.86x P/S versus a peer median of 0.36x, a premium unsupported by a business that burned $147.8M in free cash flow in FY2025 and has posted negative gross margins for five consecutive fiscal years.
With Q3 earnings being released today and gross profit deteriorating across each quarter of FY2026, the risk-reward skews materially to the downside.
What could go wrong
- Policy tailwinds. Hydrogen tax credits or clean-energy policy shifts could drive order momentum and investor sentiment independent of current fundamentals.
- Lumpy contract revenue. Q4 FY2025 produced positive operating income of $42.8M, suggesting large contract milestones or one-time items can swing results and create the appearance of an inflection.
- Growing institutional interest. Smart money score rose to 0.0075 as of 2026-06-30 with fund count increasing from 1 to 40 over two years, indicating some institutional conviction building.
- Insider purchase signal. Livingston purchased $495K of common stock at $18.79 on 2026-07-16, the largest open-market insider buy in the recent window.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results · fundamentals and derived_metrics · peer_relative · quarterly_results. Orin's read on FCEL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FCEL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $84.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $77.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $74.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $50.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Encompass Capital Advisors | $49.2M | 1.7% of fund |
| Anatole Investment Management | $42.0M | 7.1% of fund |
50 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 167 Form 4 filings, net $172K. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FCEL
Orin answers questions about FCEL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 8.91× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.2× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$21
$8 – $30 · +25% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCELFuelCell Energy, Inc. | $1B | — | — | -32.4% | -113.9% | -22% |
| ALTGAlta Equipment Group Inc. | $196M | — | 16.2× | 25.9% | -4.4% | 456% |
| MVSTMicrovast Holdings, Inc. | $232M | 4.3× | 3.7× | 25.1% | 13.9% | 12% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.