Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Freeport-McMoRan trades at 34.3x trailing earnings—roughly 130% above the peer median of 14.9x—despite FY2025 gross margin compressing to 27.0% from 29.5% in FY2024 and free cash flow falling to $1.12B from $2.35B, with total debt rising to $11.5B.
The copper supply-crunch narrative and Grasberg's ramp toward 80% capacity by mid-2027 are genuine catalysts, and FCX has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last five quarters, but Q2 2026 revenue declined 7.3% year-over-year and technicals have deteriorated with the stock at $69.54, below its 50-day MA of $72.04 and a negative MACD histogram. The valuation already discounts a favorable copper outlook that recent quarterly results have not fully confirmed, making this a hold pending clearer evidence that Grasberg volumes and metal prices translate into margin expansion.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 34.3x PE and 11.8x EV/EBITDA—130% and 60% above peer medians respectively—any disappointment in copper prices or Grasberg ramp timing could trigger multiple contraction.
- Margin and cash flow deterioration. FY2025 gross margin fell to 27.0% from 29.5% in FY2024, and FCF declined to $1.12B from $2.35B while capex remained elevated at $4.49B and total debt rose to $11.5B.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 722,122 shares for $46.4M, including the EVP & General Counsel exercising options and selling 80,000 shares at $78.56 in August 2026.
- Grasberg execution risk. The bull case hinges on Grasberg reaching 80% capacity by mid-2027 and near-full capacity by year-end 2027; any slippage would delay the volume ramp underpinning the premium valuation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on FCX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 60.5% over twelve months, from $41.10 on 27 Oct 2025 to $65.95 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $79.91 on 25 Aug 2026; the last close is 17.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 48.3M, on 29 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All FCX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.6B | 0.4% |
| Franklin Resources | $2.4B | 0.5% |
| Bank of America | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
138 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 82 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$46.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FCX
Orin answers questions about FCX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.1×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.7×near usual | 29.1× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 3.59×above usual | 2.69× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9×above usual | 6.4× | — |
| P/B | 4.5×above usual | 3.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $73.50 (from $47 to $88) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$73.50
$47 – $88 · +11% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (NEM 13.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $95B | 27.7× | 10.9× | 28.0% | 13.0% | 17% |
| NEMNewmont Corporation | $117B | 13.0× | 6.8× | 61.6% | 35.1% | 26% |
- FCX: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $0 a share — 100% below the $66.21 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $0 | 100% below $66.21 |
| Levered | $14 | 79% below $66.21 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.