Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX
FCX is a hold after its powerful rally to $79.91 (as of 2026-08-25) has pushed RSI to 72.9 and the stock well above both its 50-day ($65.13) and 200-day ($59.54) moving averages, leaving limited near-term upside despite the compelling copper-on-AI-demand narrative. FY2025 fundamentals show margin compression—gross margin fell to 26.98% from 29.48% in FY2024—and free cash flow declined to $1.12B from $2.35B while total debt rose to $11.5B from $9.74B.
At 39.36x trailing PE, a 22% premium to the peer median of 32.25x, the market is pricing in a copper bull case that the income statement has yet to confirm, and a newly announced investigation into officers and directors adds an unquantified legal overhang.
What could go wrong
- Legal investigation. KSF announced an investigation into FCX officers and directors on 2026-08-24 related to the PT Freeport Indonesia mud rush disclosure, which could lead to litigation or regulatory action.
- Margin and cash flow deterioration. FY2025 gross margin compressed to 26.98% from 29.48% in FY2024 and FCF fell to $1.12B from $2.35B, signaling rising costs or operational headwinds at a time of elevated capex ($4.49B).
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 72.9 with the stock at $79.91, roughly 23% above its 50-day MA of $65.13, increases vulnerability to a sharp pullback on any negative catalyst.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 350,413 shares for net value of $55.2M, with recent sales by the CAO and EVP in July–August 2026 at $63–$70 per share.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Technicals as of 2026-08-25 · Technicals as of 2026-08-25 · Derived metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · Fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024. Orin's read on FCX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FCX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $2.4B | 0.5% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
135 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 80 Form 4 filings, net −$61.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FCX
Orin answers questions about FCX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.8× | 29.2× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3× | 6.4× | — |
| P/S | 4.03× | 2.69× | — |
| P/B | 5.2× | 3.7× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.27σ from its own mean).
28.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$71
$47 – $82 · +0% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $104B | 35.8× | 12.3× | 26.8% | 11.4% | 15% |
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $64B | — | 62.5× | 32.1% | -0.4% | -0% |
| CRHCRH plc | $57B | 19.2× | 12.8× | 39.4% | 13.7% | 14% |
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | $54B | 53.3× | 17.4× | 48.5% | 5.7% | 4% |
| ECLEcolab Inc. | $78B | 36.9× | 25.9× | 44.1% | 12.6% | 21% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $32B | 28.8× | 14.2× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 8.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $1 | $61.89 · −99% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $16 | $61.89 · −75% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.