FedEx Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
FedEx trades at $287.07, a 38.4% P/E discount to the peer median (15.6x vs 25.4x) and a 38.3% EV/EBITDA discount (9.2x vs 14.9x), with RSI at 35 signaling oversold conditions after the stock fell below both its 50-day ($313.85) and 200-day ($298.61) moving averages following the June 2026 FedEx Freight spinoff.
FY2026 results (ended 31 May) showed accelerating momentum—quarterly revenue growth improved from 3.1% in Q1 to 12.5% in Q4, EPS reached $18.55, and free cash flow surged to $5.12B from $2.98B—while the company beat EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters. The post-spin parcel-only financials remain unavailable, but the pre-spin trajectory, deep valuation discount, and oversold technicals make the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Post-spin comparability gap. FY2026 results include the FedEx Freight business that was spun off in June 2026; clean parcel-only financials are not yet available, making forward estimates unreliable.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $42.94B as of FY2026 from $37.42B in FY2025, increasing balance-sheet risk in a higher-rate environment.
- Institutional sentiment cooling. Smart money score stood at 0.06 as of 30 Jun with only 70 funds, well below the 0.10 peak seen in late 2024.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $7.56M in value across 187 transactions, with recent activity dominated by option exercises and immediate dispositions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 1 Oct · peer comparison · FY26 fundamentals · FY26 results. Orin's read on FDX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 54.2% over twelve months, from $199.17 on 27 Oct 2025 to $307.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $339.35 on 13 Aug 2026; the last close is 9.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.7M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FDX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.7B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $998.2M | 0.1% |
133 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 187 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$48.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FDX
Orin answers questions about FDX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 11.7×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.7×above usual | 11.7× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.77×above usual | 0.51× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6×above usual | 7.5× | — |
| P/B | 2.3×above usual | 1.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $310 (from $140 to $425) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$310
$140 – $425 · +1% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (UPS 19.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $73B | 16.7× | 9.6× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $80B | 19.7× | 9.8× | 16.6% | 5.1% | 29% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $310 a share — 1% above the $305.96 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $310 | 1% above $305.96 |
| Levered | $223 | 27% below $305.96 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.