FedEx Corporation FDX
FedEx's FY2026 results (ended 2026-05-31) showed a genuine fundamental inflection—revenue grew 7.7% to $94.72B, EPS rose 10.4% to $18.55, and free cash flow surged to $5.12B from $2.98B—but those figures include the FedEx Freight business that was 80.1% spun off in June 2026, creating a structural break that makes forward comparability uncertain. The stock trades at a 34.6% P/E discount to the peer median (18.0x vs 27.6x) and sits above both its 50-day ($319.50) and 200-day ($288.83) moving averages, yet has treaded water since the spin-off while smart money scores have slipped from +0.15 to -0.07 and total debt has risen to $42.94B.
With post-spin financials unavailable and institutional sentiment cooling, the call is hold until the market sees clean parcel-only financials and evidence that Network 2.0 savings are materializing.
What could go wrong
- Post-spin earnings gap. FY2026 results include Freight revenue and profit; the remaining parcel-only FedEx will report lower absolute revenue and operating income, which could pressure the stock if the market reprices the smaller earnings base.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $42.94B at FY2026 year-end from $37.42B in FY2025, and the spin-off may further alter the capital structure, raising balance-sheet risk.
- Smart money outflow. The smart money score turned negative at -0.0685 as of 2026-06-30, down from +0.1528 in Q1 2026, suggesting institutional positioning has weakened despite new 13F positions from names like BNY Mellon.
- Insider dispositions. Over the 24-month window, insider net value is -$6.17M despite positive net shares of +136,199, highlighted by a 253,927-share disposition by COO Richard Smith on 2026-08-07.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 annual fundamentals and derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 and FY2025 annual fundamentals · Motley Fool news article published 2026-08-28 · peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on FDX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FDX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $1.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
130 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 184 Form 4 filings, net −$6.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FDX
Orin answers questions about FDX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.9× | 14.5× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3× | 8.7× | — |
| P/S | 0.73× | 0.63× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | 2.3× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.36σ from its own mean).
2.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$333
$160 – $425 · +15% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $69B | 15.9× | 9.3× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| CSXCSX Corporation | $87B | 27.3× | 15.8× | 54.9% | 22.2% | 24% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $45B | 24.0× | 14.6× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $71B | 26.9× | 15.9× | 53.7% | 21.0% | 17% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $59B | 23.5× | 19.1× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $66B | 30.2× | 14.2× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
| UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $81B | 17.8× | 9.9× | 16.6% | 5.1% | 29% |
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | $64B | 24.9× | 11.8× | 37.1% | 15.7% | 29% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 38.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $166 | $320.90 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $104 | $320.90 · −68% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.