FirstEnergy Corp. FE
FirstEnergy is deeply oversold at an RSI of 24.8 with the stock at $43.65, below both its 50-day ($47.13) and 200-day ($47.47) moving averages, yet the fundamental picture remains mixed enough to warrant patience. Revenue growth is strong—12% to $15.1B in 2025 and 8.8% in Q2 2026—but EPS of $1.76 in 2025 is still well below the $2.35 posted in 2021, and free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$1.0B against $4.7B in capex.
The valuation is not uniformly expensive: the P/E of 23.3x sits 21% above the peer median of 19.3x, but EV/EBITDA of 11.6x is actually 6% below the peer median and P/S of 1.6x is 40% below peers. With $27.1B in total debt against $12.5B in equity and CEO Tierney having sold 16,991 shares at $45.90 in June 2026, the oversold bounce potential is real but the leverage and FCF deficit argue against chasing it.
What could go wrong
- Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow has been negative for four consecutive years, reaching -$1.0B in 2025 against $4.7B in capex, requiring continued external financing that pressures the $27.1B debt load.
- EPS stagnation despite revenue growth. 2025 EPS of $1.76 remains 25% below the 2021 level of $2.35, and Q4 2025 posted a loss of -$0.08 per share, raising questions about whether capex is translating into earnings.
- Valuation premium on P/E. At 23.3x P/E, FE trades at a 21% premium to the peer median of 19.3x despite an inferior EPS growth trajectory, limiting upside if growth disappoints.
- Insider selling signal. CEO Tierney sold 16,991 shares at $45.90 in June 2026, and the 24-month insider net value is -$18.9M despite net positive share acquisitions driven by phantom stock unit grants.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · quarterly_results Q2 2026 · FMP FY2025 and FY2021 annual · FMP FY2025 annual. Orin's read on FE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $3.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Blackstone | $1.4B | 4.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $661.7M | 0.0% of fund |
86 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 98 Form 4 filings, net −$18.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FE
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.3× | 23.4× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6× | 11.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.60× | 1.71× | — |
| P/B | 2.0× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.37σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$53
$51 – $55 · +21% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $25B | 23.3× | 11.6× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $28B | 17.4× | 11.8× | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $64B | 20.3× | 13.7× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $24B | 21.9× | 12.3× | 54.1% | 11.6% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $54B | 21.2× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $26B | 19.3× | 12.5× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $89B | 17.1× | 11.1× | 68.2% | 15.7% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $38B | 16.8× | 9.9× | 76.0% | 12.5% | 9% |
| EIXEdison International | $21B | 5.5× | 8.2× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $42B | 14.9× | 10.3× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $16B | 20.1× | 13.8× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $34B | 16.7× | 13.3× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation | $11B | 17.3× | 10.3× | 55.5% | 11.5% | 9% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $44B | 19.3× | 12.6× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
The median is of the 15 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 20.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-94 | $46.43 · −302% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-168 | $46.43 · −461% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.