FirstEnergy Corp.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
FirstEnergy shares have recovered from deeply oversold conditions (prior RSI ~24.8) to a neutral RSI of 47.8 at $44.58, but remain below both the 50-day ($46.02) and 200-day ($47.43) moving averages as of 7 Oct.
Revenue growth is strong at 12% in FY2025 to $15.1B and 8.8% YoY in Q2 2026, yet persistent negative free cash flow of -$1.0B against $4.7B in capex, $27.1B in total debt against $12.5B in equity, and diluted EPS of $1.76 still well below the 2021 level of $2.35 argue against chasing the bounce. Valuation is mixed — the P/E of 23.8x sits 20% above the peer median while EV/EBITDA of 11.7x is 7% below — leaving risk/reward balanced ahead of the Q3 2026 earnings release on October 27. Smart money has modestly improved (score 0.02, 61 funds as of Q2 2026) but the FCF deficit and leverage profile cap upside.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and FCF deficit. Total debt of $27.1B against $12.5B in equity, with FY2025 free cash flow of -$1.0B against $4.7B in capex, constrains financial flexibility.
- EPS not fully recovered. FY2025 diluted EPS of $1.76 remains well below the $2.35 posted in FY2021, despite revenue growth of 12% in 2025.
- Q4 2025 net loss. Q4 2025 posted a net loss of $49M (EPS -$0.08), signaling earnings volatility that could recur in future quarters.
- Insider net selling over 24 months. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 63,118 shares worth ~$3.0M, with no open-market cluster buying.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 7 Oct · Q2 2026 fundamentals and results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on FE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 0.4% over twelve months, from $46.44 on 27 Oct 2025 to $46.27 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $51.91 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 10.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 16.2M, on 30 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $3.7B | 0.4% |
| BlackRock | $2.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Blackstone | $1.4B | 4.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $661.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $569.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $486.2M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $363.8M | 0.0% |
89 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 105 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FE
Orin answers questions about FE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 24.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.4×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.7×above usual | 23.4× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 1.69×near usual | 1.71× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8×above usual | 12.1× | — |
| P/B | 2.1×near usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $50.14 (from $47 to $54) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$50.14
$47 – $54 · +8% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 24.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $27B | 24.7× | 12.8× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $20B | 19.0× | 12.0× | 50.0% | 16.7% | 10% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 24.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now24.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.