F5, Inc. FFIV
F5's fundamentals remain strong through FY2025 (ended 2025-09-30), with revenue up 9.7% to $3.09B, operating margin expanding to 24.8%, and FCF margin at 29.4%, but the stock still trades at a 29.85x P/E — a 43.5% premium to the peer median of 20.79x — even after pulling back from ~$410 to $379. BlackRock's new 11.13% stake acquired in Q2 2026 and the launch of the next-gen AI Gateway on August 18, 2026 are positive catalysts, yet persistent insider selling (net -$57.7M over 24 months, with the CEO selling at ~$410-417 on August 5, 2026) and slightly negative smart money positioning (score -0.0229 as of 2026-06-30) temper enthusiasm.
The improving business and recent pullback make this a hold rather than a sell, but the valuation premium and bearish technicals (price below the 50-day MA of $403.46, MACD histogram at -3.56) keep new-money upside limited.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 29.85x P/E and 6.46x P/S, FFIV trades at a 43.5% premium to the peer median P/E of 20.79x and an 85% premium on P/S; any growth deceleration could trigger multiple contraction.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders have net sold $57.7M in value across 241 dispositions, with the CEO and EVP Global Services both selling at $410-417 on August 5, 2026.
- Smart money deterioration. Smart money score declined from +0.125 as of 2025-06-30 to -0.0229 as of 2026-06-30, indicating institutional sentiment has turned slightly negative.
- Bearish technical setup. RSI at 39.3, price below the 50-day MA of $403.46, and a negative MACD histogram of -3.56 suggest near-term momentum remains weak.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · peer_relative composite · Defense World news article, 2026-08-20 · insider transaction summary and transactions. Orin's read on FFIV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FFIV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $857.5M | 2.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $740.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $576.1M | 0.0% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 324 Form 4 filings, net −$59.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FFIV
Orin answers questions about FFIV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.9× | 27.0× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.3× | 16.9× | — |
| P/S | 7.77× | 4.59× | — |
| P/B | 6.7× | 4.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.77σ from its own mean).
12.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$417
$300 – $475 · −8% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 33 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFIVF5, Inc. | $26B | 35.9× | 25.3× | 82.2% | 22.0% | 20% |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc. | $17B | 41.7× | 19.5× | 56.4% | 9.5% | 8% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc. | $26B | 23.7× | 13.7× | 73.3% | 22.7% | 30% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | $13B | 14.2× | 11.0× | 63.8% | 17.8% | 661% |
| GENGen Digital Inc. | $16B | 15.1× | 10.1× | 78.0% | 20.7% | 42% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 85.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $395 | $392.50 · +1% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $507 | $392.50 · +29% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.