F5, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
F5 is a buy at $442.03 following its pullback from 52-week highs near $484, with fundamentals accelerating even as the stock has corrected to a more reasonable entry point.
FY2025 revenue grew 9.7% to $3.09B with operating margin expanding to 24.8%, and the most recent completed quarter (Q3 FY2026, ended 30 Jun) showed revenue up 10.9% YoY to $865.1M with an 18.3% EPS surprise. At 34.8x P/E, FFIV trades at a 41.1% discount to the peer median of 59.1x despite delivering double-digit revenue growth and consistent earnings beats, making it the cheapest stock in its peer group on P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA. The October 27 FY2026 earnings report is the next catalyst, with RBC having recently raised its price target to $525.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling pressure. Over the past 24 months, insiders have executed 115 dispositions with zero acquisitions, netting -117,245 shares for -$36.07M in value, including CTO and CMO sales on 14 Sep.
- Smart money slightly negative. Smart money score is -0.04 as of 30 Jun across 63 funds, indicating modest institutional caution, though it has improved from -0.09 a year earlier.
- Q4 earnings risk. FY2026 Q4 results on October 27, 2026 could disappoint after a streak of large beats (18.3% most recent), with the stock having already rallied significantly off 2025 lows.
- Technical momentum weakening. MACD histogram is negative at -2.73 and RSI is neutral at 48.0 as of 16 Oct, suggesting near-term momentum has stalled after the run-up.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q3 FY26 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on FFIV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 58.2% over twelve months, from $290.41 on 27 Oct 2025 to $459.36 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $479.83 on 9 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.2M, on 24 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FFIV filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | Total net revenues for the three months ended June 30, 2026, were $865.1 million, an increase of 10.9% year-over-year from $780.4 million in the prior year period. | read |
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 27 Jul | F5, Inc. reported its third quarter ended June 30, 2026, financial results on July 27, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jun | F5, Inc. appointed Gavin Munroe as a director, effective June 17, 2026, triggering Item 5.02 of Form 8-K. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 5 May | F5’s fiscal 2Q26 revenue rose 11.0% YoY to $811.7 million and 1.9% QoQ, driven by a 21.7% YoY surge in product sales; systems revenue jumped 26.2% YoY while software grew 16.7%. | read |
| 13G/A | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $857.5M | 2.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $740.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $576.1M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $385.0M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $347.5M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $347.1M | 0.0% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 324 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$36.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FFIV
Orin answers questions about FFIV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.0×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.2×above usual | 27.0× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 10.4×above usual | 4.59× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.1×above usual | 16.9× | — |
| P/B | 6.5×above usual | 4.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $417 (from $300 to $475) — 9% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$417
$300 – $475 · −9% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to have a P/E that says something (AKAM 29.0×, FTNT 64.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFIVF5, Inc. | $26B | 36.2× | 27.1× | 111.9% | 28.9% | 19% |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc. | $11B | 29.0× | 19.3× | 55.4% | 8.8% | 8% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $136B | 64.7× | 47.6× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $329B | n/m | 213× | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
- PANW: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now36.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $360 a share — 22% below the $459.34 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $360 | 22% below $459.34 |
| Levered | $461 | 0% above $459.34 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.