Orin
FISNYSE·Information Technology Services

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FIS

Market cap $18.0BP/E 5.3× trailingGross margin 37.1%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$34.92
+0.25 (+0.72%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $34.22 – $69.14
Watch
Orin's take
0.60conviction · moderate
Refreshed 19 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

FIS trades at 6.2x P/E and 6.7x EV/EBITDA—roughly 87% and 81% below peer medians of 46.4x and 35.5x respectively—while operating income held stable at $1.76B on FY2025 revenue that accelerated to 5.4% YoY growth. The post-Worldpay deleveraging story is tangible: total debt fell from $20.4B in 2022 to $4.0B in 2025, and free cash flow surged to $2.81B (26.3% FCF margin), though GAAP net income dropped 73.7% to $382M on below-the-line charges that did not touch operating performance.

The stock remains under technical pressure at $40.66—20% below its 200-day MA of $51.00—with a bearish MACD histogram, but the combination of deeply discounted valuation, improving top-line growth, and surging FCF supports a contrarian buy while the operating recovery gains traction.

What could go wrong

  • Below-the-line earnings erosion. Net income fell 73.7% to $382M in FY2025 despite stable operating income of $1.76B; if below-the-line charges persist or prove recurring, the headline P/E of 6.2x may not be as cheap as it appears.
  • Technical downtrend. Stock at $40.66 trades 20% below its 200-day MA of $51.00 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.41 and RSI at 42.2, suggesting ongoing selling pressure that could worsen before it reverses.
  • Net insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders were net sellers by $6.25M in value despite net positive share count of 369,759, and recent acquisitions were predominantly RSU grants rather than open-market purchases.
  • Margin pressure from rising tech costs. Industry commentary notes rising technology costs and consumer spending pressures weighing on margins for payments players including FIS, which could constrain the operating margin recovery from its current 16.5% level.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings: net income conversion. If FY2026 quarterly net income shows recovery toward levels consistent with operating income conversion (i.e., narrowing the gap between $1.76B operating income and $382M net income), this would validate the below-the-line charges as non-recurring.bullish
Technical reclaim of 200-day MA. If FIS closes above its 200-day MA of approximately $51.00 on rising volume with a MACD bullish crossover, it would signal the downtrend has exhausted and support a higher-conviction buy.bullish
Smart money inflows. If the smart money score rises meaningfully above its current 0.0059 with increasing fund count beyond 63 in the next 13F filing (Q3 2026, available ~November 2026), institutional accumulation would corroborate the value thesis.bullish
FCF deployment and debt trajectory. If FIS continues to reduce total debt from its $4.0B level and deploys the $2.81B in annual FCF toward buybacks or further deleveraging, the equity story strengthens; conversely, a stall in debt reduction or FCF decline would be bearish.bullish

Where this comes from: peer_relative (as of 2026-08-19) · fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics FY2025 (year ended 2025-12-31) · fundamentals FY2022 vs FY2025 + derived_metrics FY2025 (years ended 2022-12-31 and 2025-12-31) · fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 (year ended 2025-12-31). Orin's read on FIS; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.3B0.0% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$1.0B0.1% of fund
State Street$1.0B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$941.6M0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$811.4M0.1% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors$704.4M0.1% of fund

93 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 99 Form 4 filings, net −$6.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about FIS

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about FIS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E5.3×53.3×
EV/EBITDA6.2×17.1×
P/S1.44×4.22×
P/B1.1×1.9×

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.78σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-8.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

37 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$48

$42$57 · +39% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 21 buy or overweight
  • 15 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 39.8× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.$18B5.3×6.2×37.1%27.2%23%
ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock$62B166.1×184.7×75.1%30.7%25%
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.$19B16.9×11.6×31.8%15.0%40%
CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd$36B65.7×62.7×67.1%33.8%27%
CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation$27B12.7×7.0×32.0%10.3%15%
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company$83B31.0×17.1×36.0%6.6%11%
KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc.$60B48.7×35.3×64.7%19.1%20%
LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.$16B11.5×9.4×17.4%7.9%28%
PSTGEverpure, Inc$28B126.3×84.8×70.2%5.7%21%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 86.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 26.1×FY25 89.8×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$78$39.33 · +97%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$112$39.33 · +185%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $34.92
52-week range$34 – $69
Analyst targets$42 – $57
Standard DCF$78 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $39.33
Levered DCF$112 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $39.33
At own 5y-median P/E (31×)$201
At 5y P/E range (-5–161×)$-35 – $1053
At sector P/E (53×)$348

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.