Orin
FISVNasdaq·Information Technology Services

Fiserv, Inc. FISV

Market cap $24.7BP/E 8.8× trailingGross margin 47.2%Reports Wed 28 Oct, before the open
$46.33
+0.38 (+0.82%)live 09:35 ET
52-wk $45.14 – $238.59
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 25 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Fiserv remains a show-me story after cutting its 2026 outlook following weaker Q2 results, with revenue growth decelerating to 3.6% in FY2025 (down from 7.1% in 2024), operating margin compressing to 26.9% from 28.7%, and operating income declining from $5.88B to $5.70B. The stock trades at 10.1x trailing earnings — roughly 40% below the peer median of 17.0x — and still generates $4.3B in free cash flow, while a cluster buy by six insiders in June 2026 and a recent open-market purchase by insider Fritz Lance at $51.95 in August 2026 suggest confidence at these levels.

However, debt has risen to $29.1B, the stock sits below its 200-day moving average of $58.81, and smart money positioning is slightly negative at -0.0097 with fund count declining from 64 to 59, keeping the risk-reward balanced rather than compelling.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression continues. Operating margin fell from 28.7% in 2024 to 26.9% in 2025 and the 2026 outlook was cut for margin pressure; further compression would erode the FCF thesis.
  • Leverage and debt burden. Total debt rose to $29.1B in 2025 from $25.0B in 2024, increasing interest expense risk if rates remain elevated or if revenue growth stalls further.
  • Revenue growth deceleration. Revenue growth slowed to 3.6% in 2025 from 7.1% in 2024; the 2026 guidance cut to flat-to-negative organic growth signals potential stagnation in core merchant and payments segments.
  • Shareholder lawsuit overhang. A shareholder lawsuit update was reported in August 2026 for investors who purchased shares prior to February 2024, creating legal uncertainty and potential settlement costs.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 organic revenue reacceleration. Q3 2026 results show organic revenue growth returning to positive territory above 1%bullish
Operating margin stabilization. Quarterly operating margin stops compressing and holds at or above 26%bullish
Further guidance cut or earnings miss. Fiserv cuts 2026 guidance again or reports another quarterly EPS decline exceeding 10% YoYbearish
Debt downgrade or leverage breach. Credit rating agencies downgrade Fiserv or net debt/EBITDA exceeds covenant thresholdsbearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · fundamentals FY2024 and FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on FISV; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.6B0.0% of fund
State Street$1.2B0.0% of fund
Harris Associates L P$1.1B1.4% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.0B0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$825.1M0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$760.4M0.0% of fund

96 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 119 Form 4 filings, net −$41.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E8.8×26.5×53.3×
EV/EBITDA7.5×12.9×
P/S1.17×4.24×
P/B0.9×2.2×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.58σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-10.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

61 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$62

$46$91 · +35% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 33 buy or overweight
  • 28 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 16.4× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
FISVFiserv, Inc.$25B8.8×7.5×47.2%13.4%11%
ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.$97B49.8×21.1×19.5%8.5%17%
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.$19B16.9×11.6×31.8%15.0%40%
CDWCDW Corporation$19B17.5×13.3×21.4%4.6%43%
CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation$27B12.7×7.0×32.0%10.3%15%
FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc.$18B5.3×6.2×37.1%27.2%23%
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company$83B31.0×17.1×36.0%6.6%11%
ITGartner, Inc.$12B16.0×10.3×68.9%12.0%401%
LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.$16B11.5×9.4×17.4%7.9%28%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 22.6×FY25 10.6×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$336$53.52 · +527%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$209$53.52 · +291%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $46.33
52-week range$45 – $239
Analyst targets$46 – $91
Standard DCF$336 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $53.52
Levered DCF$209 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $53.52
At own 5y-median P/E (26×)$138
At 5y P/E range (11–52×)$55 – $269
At sector P/E (53×)$278

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.