Fiserv, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fiserv remains a show-me story heading into Q3 2026 earnings on November 3, with revenue declining for two consecutive quarters (Q1 2026 -2.0% YoY, Q2 2026 -4.1% YoY) and Q2 2026 operating income collapsing to $1.015B from $1.696B in Q2 2025.
The stock trades at a deep discount to peers (P/E of 8.82 vs peer median 13.34; EV/EBITDA of 6.96 vs peer median 10.96) and insiders executed a cluster buy in June 2026 with six insiders purchasing ~$1.7M on the open market, but the combination of rising debt ($29.1B in FY2025), compressing operating margins (26.9% in FY2025 vs 28.7% in FY2024), and a downtrending stock below both its 50-day ($50.04) and 200-day ($56.08) moving averages keeps this a hold until revenue trends stabilize.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline accelerates. Q2 2026 revenue fell 4.1% YoY, worsening from Q1 2026's -2.0%; a further deterioration in Q3 could signal structural share loss in merchant acquiring.
- Operating margin compression. FY2025 operating margin dropped to 26.9% from 28.7% in FY2024, and Q2 2026 operating income of $1.015B was sharply lower than Q2 2025's $1.696B.
- Leverage burden. Total debt rose to $29.1B in FY2025 from $25.0B in FY2024 while free cash flow declined to $4.3B from $5.1B, narrowing the debt-service cushion.
- Bearish technical trend. Stock at $46.05 trades below both MA50 ($50.04) and MA200 ($56.08) with RSI at 42.7; Zacks added FISV to its Strong Sell list on October 1, 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 2026 results · Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 results · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on FISV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 62.5% over twelve months, from $126.54 on 27 Oct 2025 to $47.40 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $126.54 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 62.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 103.5M, on 29 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FISV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $1.1B | 1.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $825.1M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $760.4M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $513.5M | 1.5% |
| FMR | $455.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $350.7M | 0.0% |
99 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 129 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $3.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FISV
Orin answers questions about FISV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 9.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.5×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1×below usual | 26.5× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 1.21×below usual | 4.24× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0×below usual | 12.9× | — |
| P/B | 0.9×below usual | 2.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $61.23 (from $46 to $91) — 29% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$61.23
$46 – $91 · +29% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 9.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $15B | 4.4× | 7.5× | 35.8% | 26.8% | 22% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $25B | lost money | 10.9× | 61.5% | −11.4% | −6% |
| JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | $11B | 22.7× | 12.9× | 43.6% | 19.8% | 23% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $534B | 33.5× | 24.7× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
- GPN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 9.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now9.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $316 a share — 565% above the $47.45 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $316 | 565% above $47.45 |
| Levered | $193 | 306% above $47.45 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.