Fiserv, Inc. FISV
Fiserv remains a show-me story after cutting its 2026 outlook following weaker Q2 results, with revenue growth decelerating to 3.6% in FY2025 (down from 7.1% in 2024), operating margin compressing to 26.9% from 28.7%, and operating income declining from $5.88B to $5.70B. The stock trades at 10.1x trailing earnings — roughly 40% below the peer median of 17.0x — and still generates $4.3B in free cash flow, while a cluster buy by six insiders in June 2026 and a recent open-market purchase by insider Fritz Lance at $51.95 in August 2026 suggest confidence at these levels.
However, debt has risen to $29.1B, the stock sits below its 200-day moving average of $58.81, and smart money positioning is slightly negative at -0.0097 with fund count declining from 64 to 59, keeping the risk-reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression continues. Operating margin fell from 28.7% in 2024 to 26.9% in 2025 and the 2026 outlook was cut for margin pressure; further compression would erode the FCF thesis.
- Leverage and debt burden. Total debt rose to $29.1B in 2025 from $25.0B in 2024, increasing interest expense risk if rates remain elevated or if revenue growth stalls further.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Revenue growth slowed to 3.6% in 2025 from 7.1% in 2024; the 2026 guidance cut to flat-to-negative organic growth signals potential stagnation in core merchant and payments segments.
- Shareholder lawsuit overhang. A shareholder lawsuit update was reported in August 2026 for investors who purchased shares prior to February 2024, creating legal uncertainty and potential settlement costs.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · fundamentals FY2024 and FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on FISV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FISV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $1.1B | 1.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $825.1M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $760.4M | 0.0% of fund |
96 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 119 Form 4 filings, net −$41.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FISV
Orin answers questions about FISV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8× | 26.5× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5× | 12.9× | — |
| P/S | 1.17× | 4.24× | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.58σ from its own mean).
-10.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$62
$46 – $91 · +35% against today's price
- 33 buy or overweight
- 28 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 8.8× | 7.5× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $97B | 49.8× | 21.1× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | $19B | 16.9× | 11.6× | 31.8% | 15.0% | 40% |
| CDWCDW Corporation | $19B | 17.5× | 13.3× | 21.4% | 4.6% | 43% |
| CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | $27B | 12.7× | 7.0× | 32.0% | 10.3% | 15% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $18B | 5.3× | 6.2× | 37.1% | 27.2% | 23% |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $83B | 31.0× | 17.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| ITGartner, Inc. | $12B | 16.0× | 10.3× | 68.9% | 12.0% | 401% |
| LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc. | $16B | 11.5× | 9.4× | 17.4% | 7.9% | 28% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $336 | $53.52 · +527% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $209 | $53.52 · +291% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.