Comfort Systems USA, Inc. FIX
Comfort Systems USA remains a hold after a sharp pullback from roughly $1,774 to $1,518.73 as of August 28, 2026. The fundamental story is outstanding—FY2025 revenue of $9.10B with 29.5% YoY growth, EPS of $28.88, and operating margin expansion to 14.4%—but the stock still trades at 37.3x trailing P/E and 4.76x P/S, premiums of roughly 35% and 271% to peer medians, leaving little room for error if data-center-driven growth decelerates as 2026 is widely flagged as a potential peak.
Technicals are deteriorating with the stock below its 50-day MA of $1,752.20 and RSI at 37.1, while insiders have net sold $246.7M over 24 months including a $25.8M CEO sale on August 26, 2026.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 37.3x P/E and 26.5x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 27.7x and 15.9x, any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating; a published DCF estimates fair value at $1,296 versus the current $1,518.73 close.
- Peak growth narrative. Recent commentary flags 2026 as the peak growth rate, with physical constraints on labor and prefab capacity limiting upside despite a large backlog; FY2025 revenue growth of 29.5% already decelerated from 35.0% in FY2024.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months insiders net sold 213,096 shares for $246.7M, with 110 dispositions versus 33 acquisitions; the CEO sold 16,024 shares at $1,608.21 on August 26, 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $1,518.73 is below its 50-day MA of $1,752.20 with RSI at 37.1 and a negative MACD histogram of -16.53; the 200-day MA of $1,475.88 is the next support level.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on FIX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FIX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.7% of fund |
112 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 143 Form 4 filings, net −$246.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.9× | 25.0× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.4× | 15.5× | — |
| P/S | 5.10× | 1.41× | — |
| P/B | 17.8× | 5.8× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.79σ from its own mean).
21.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$2080
$1910 – $2200 · +28% against today's price
- 5 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $57B | 39.9× | 28.4× | 25.7% | 12.8% | 54% |
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | $1B | 42.9× | 12.4× | 16.1% | 1.4% | 2% |
| APGAPi Group Corporation | $16B | — | 21.7× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 10% |
| DYDycom Industries, Inc. | $8B | 25.3× | 9.5× | 19.0% | 4.8% | 18% |
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $33B | 23.5× | 14.7× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| GVAGranite Construction Incorporated | $5B | — | 30.4× | 15.6% | -3.3% | -16% |
| MYRGMYR Group Inc. | $5B | 27.8× | 15.3× | 12.4% | 4.1% | 24% |
| PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation | $4B | 28.7× | 16.0× | 8.6% | 1.9% | 8% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $95B | 71.8× | 33.5× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| ROADConstruction Partners, Inc. | $5B | 36.5× | 16.8× | 15.8% | 4.1% | 15% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 39.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $983 | $1723.88 · −43% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $1508 | $1723.88 · −13% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.