Orin
FLEXNasdaq·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

Flex Ltd. FLEX

Market cap $40.4BP/E 43.4× trailingGross margin 9.5%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$109.50
−2.80 (−2.49%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $53.07 – $166.86
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Flex's FY2026 results show genuine operational improvement—revenue grew 8.1% to $27.9B with gross margin expanding to 9.2% and operating margin to 5.4%, while the planned CPI spin-off could unlock value in its fastest-growing AI data-center business. However, at a trailing P/E of 46.4x—95% above the peer median of 23.8x—and with insiders net selling $179M of stock over the past 24 months, the risk-reward is balanced rather than compelling at $120.24.

The stock has pulled back below its 50-day MA of $133.42 but remains well above the 200-day MA of $91.75, suggesting the post-AI-hype re-rating has partially deflated but not enough to justify a new position at these levels.

What could go wrong

  • Premium valuation. At 46.4x trailing P/E (95.4% above peer median of 23.8x) and 25.0x EV/EBITDA (32.9% above median), FLEX leaves little room for execution missteps, particularly given its 3.15% net margin profile.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders executed 211 dispositions versus 86 acquisitions, netting -$531,657 shares and -$178.9M in value, a sustained bearish signal from those closest to the business.
  • Rising debt and capex. Total debt increased to $4.32B in FY2026 from $4.15B in FY2025, while capex jumped to $633M from $438M, pressuring free cash flow which dipped to $1.05B from $1.07B despite higher revenue.
  • CPI spin-off execution risk. Separating the fastest-growing Cloud and Power Infrastructure unit could dilute the remaining company's growth profile and complicate capital allocation during the transition.

What would change my mind

CPI spin-off completion. CPI spin-off closes with clear pro forma financials showing attractive standalone valuation for both entitiesbullish
Margin compression. Operating margin falls below 5.0% in upcoming quarterly results, reversing the FY2026 expansion to 5.4%bearish
Valuation normalization. P/E reverts toward peer median of 23.8x via price decline or EPS growth, closing the 95% premium gapbullish
Insider buying reversal. Insider transactions shift to net open-market purchases (not code A grants) over a 3-month windowbullish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · peer_relative composite, as of 2026-08-18 · insider summary, 24-month window ending 2026-08-05 · technicals, as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on FLEX; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.9B0.1% of fund
Fmr$3.2B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.1B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$2.9B0.5% of fund
State Street$2.8B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.7B0.1% of fund

119 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 288 Form 4 filings, net −$178.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 32 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E43.4×53.3×
EV/EBITDA23.4×
P/S1.42×
P/B7.6×
What the price assumes

16.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

26 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$148

$95$180 · +35% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 19 buy or overweight
  • 7 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 27.3× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
FLEXFlex Ltd.$41B43.4×23.4×9.5%3.3%19%
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.$19B16.9×11.6×31.8%15.0%40%
FTVFortive Corporation$17B32.7×18.8×63.2%12.4%9%
JBLJabil Inc.$32B38.1×16.4×9.2%2.6%62%
LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.$16B11.5×9.4×17.4%7.9%28%
NTAPNetApp, Inc.$39B27.3×18.4×70.6%19.2%114%
PTCPTC Inc.$16B13.5×10.4×84.1%41.4%33%
TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated$29B29.9×19.2×39.0%15.3%9%
TRMBTrimble Inc.$14B57.3×68.4%-2.8%-2%
TTDThe Trade Desk, Inc.$6B15.1×6.6×83.0%13.6%16%
VRSNVeriSign, Inc.$27B31.8×23.3×88.5%49.8%-39%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 58.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 12.2×FY26 28.1×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $109.50
52-week range$53 – $167
Analyst targets$95 – $180
At sector P/E (53×)$138

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.