Fluor Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fluor's recovery from a deeply negative FY2025 (gross profit -$120M, operating income -$363M, FCF -$437M) remains inconsistent: Q2 2026 showed genuine improvement with $179M gross profit and $135M operating income on revenue of $4.33B (+8.8% YoY), but Q1 2026 still posted an operating loss of -$48M and the Q2 earnings surprise was -78.8% (actual EPS $0.14 vs. estimate $0.66).
The September 2026 LNG Canada Phase 2 award with Fluor's $7.5B share is a meaningful backlog catalyst, yet the stock has broken down to $45.18, below both its 50-day MA ($52.14) and 200-day MA ($49.30), with an RSI of 29.1 signaling oversold conditions. With a negative trailing P/E of -3.75 and no insider cluster buying (net insider selling of 290,590 shares over 24 months), the market is pricing in continued uncertainty; the Q3 2026 earnings call on November 6 is the critical near-term catalyst to determine whether the Q2 recovery is durable.
What could go wrong
- Earnings volatility and execution risk. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.14 missed estimates of $0.66 by 78.8%, and Q1 2026 still had an operating loss of -$48M, showing the turnaround is not yet consistent across quarters.
- Negative trailing financials. FY2025 gross profit was -$120M with a gross margin of -0.77% and FCF of -$437M; the trailing P/E of -3.75 reflects ongoing losses on a TTM basis.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $45.18 is below both the 50-day MA ($52.14) and 200-day MA ($49.30), with MACD histogram at -0.44 and RSI at 29.1, indicating sustained bearish momentum.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 290,590 shares for net value of -$14.9M with zero open-market acquisitions; most recent transactions are stock grants, not discretionary buys.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 8 May. Orin's read on FLR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 4.8% over twelve months, from $48.50 on 27 Oct 2025 to $46.16 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $57.50 on 3 Sep 2026; the last close is 19.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.0M, on 8 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FLR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $352.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $330.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $294.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $271.7M | 0.0% |
| DME Capital Management | $244.1M | 6.2% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $242.9M | 0.7% |
| D. E. Shaw | $154.5M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $144.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $139.0M | 0.0% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 140 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$14.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FLR
Orin answers questions about FLR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 0.39× its yearly sales — near its usual level (0.38×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.39×near usual | 0.38× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 2.3×below usual | 2.5× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.0× to 71.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $62.33 (from $50 to $71) — 35% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$62.33
$50 – $71 · +35% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLRFluor Corporation | $6B | lost money | n/m | −0.8% | −12.8% | −57% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 27.8× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 26.5× | 20.3× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | $1B | 37.6× | 11.8× | 16.1% | 1.4% | 2% |
| JJacobs Solutions Inc. | $17B | 51.7× | 22.4× | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10% |
| KBRKBR, Inc. | $5B | 12.1× | 9.0× | 14.5% | 5.5% | 27% |
| MTRXMatrix Service Company | $244M | 33.4× | 5.6× | 7.7% | 0.8% | 5% |
| PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation | $4B | 26.8× | 15.1× | 8.6% | 1.9% | 8% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $87B | 65.5× | 30.0× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| TTEKTetra Tech, Inc. | $9B | 22.1× | 15.0× | 18.8% | 8.6% | 24% |
| WLDNWilldan Group, Inc. | $1B | 16.6× | 14.9× | 38.2% | 8.2% | 19% |
- FLR: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $8 a share — 83% below the $46.26 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $8 | 83% below $46.26 |
| Levered | $9 | 81% below $46.26 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.