Fabrinet
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fabrinet's growth story remains exceptional — FY2026 revenue grew 35.7% to $4.64B with EPS up 42.3% to $13.05, Q4 revenue accelerated to 44.6% YoY growth, and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight straight quarters — but the stock has rebounded from prior lows to $486.28, trading at 36.8x earnings (a 10.6% premium to the peer median) and 27.4x EV/EBITDA (a 48.4% premium), which limits upside from here.
Free cash flow collapsed to $3.0M in FY2026 from $206.5M in FY2025 as capex more than doubled to $253.7M for capacity expansion, and 24-month net insider selling of $50.5M with recent dispositions by the CEO, COO, and CFO adds caution. Technicals have improved with the stock back above its 50-day MA at $451.26 and a bullish MACD histogram of 11.38, but it remains below its 200-day MA at $532.47, leaving the longer-term trend unconfirmed.
What could go wrong
- Customer concentration. Per recent news coverage, rapid revenue growth is driven by a small number of major hyperscaler customers; loss or reduction of a key customer could materially impact results.
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow fell to $3.0M in FY2026 from $206.5M in FY2025 as capex surged to $253.7M; if capex continues escalating without proportional revenue, cash generation remains impaired.
- Valuation premium on EV/EBITDA. At 27.4x EV/EBITDA, FN trades at a 48.4% premium to the peer median of 18.5x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 146,072 shares worth $50.5M with zero acquisitions; recent sales by the CEO, COO, CFO, and EVP of Sales & Marketing suggest limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · Q4 FY26 results · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on FN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.0% over twelve months, from $423.61 on 27 Oct 2025 to $343.21 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $746.47 on 14 May 2026; the last close is 54.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.0M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.7B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $908.3M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $833.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $737.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $602.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $504.3M | 0.0% |
| Durable Capital Partners | $339.1M | 3.3% |
92 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 120 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$50.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FN
Orin answers questions about FN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 26.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 30.0×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.0×below usual | 30.0× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 2.65×below usual | 3.08× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.2×below usual | 23.5× | — |
| P/B | 5.0×near usual | 5.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 6 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $739 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 115% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$739
$739 – $739 · +115% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 26.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 50.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNFabrinet | $12B | 26.0× | 19.2× | 12.0% | 10.2% | 21% |
| AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $4B | lost money | n/m | 28.8% | −4.4% | −2% |
| CIENCiena Corporation | $50B | 76.0× | 49.0× | 44.1% | 10.9% | 23% |
| COHRCoherent, Inc. | $33B | 33.5× | 21.1× | 38.2% | 12.2% | 9% |
| GLWCorning Incorporated | $109B | 50.5× | 24.2× | 36.4% | 12.1% | 17% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $30B | 28.7× | 14.2× | 9.2% | 2.9% | 74% |
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | $78B | lost money | — | 41.7% | −230.1% | −300% |
| LPTHLightPath Technologies, Inc. | $586M | lost money | — | 36.0% | −28.6% | −22% |
| NOVTNovanta Inc. | $6B | 93.9× | 33.8× | 42.5% | 6.0% | 5% |
| OPTXSyntec Optics Holdings, Inc. | $283M | lost money | 264× | 19.6% | −8.3% | −16% |
- AAOI, LITE, LPTH, OPTX: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AAOI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 26.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now26.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $150 a share — 55% below the $335.62 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $150 | 55% below $335.62 |
| Levered | $188 | 44% below $335.62 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.