Orin
FNNYSE·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

Fabrinet FN

Market cap $14.4BP/E 30.3× trailingGross margin 12.0%Reports Mon 2 Nov, after the close
$400.85
−2.95 (−0.73%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $354.41 – $748.89
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Orin's take
0.65conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Fabrinet delivered record Q4 FY2026 results with revenue surging 45% YoY to $1.316B and non-GAAP EPS of $4.10 beating the $3.85 consensus, resolving the uncertainty that justified a prior hold and signaling accelerating AI-driven optics demand. At $598.58, the stock trades at 45.3x earnings — a 30.5% premium to the peer median — but the growth acceleration from FY2025's 18.6% revenue growth, near-zero debt of $9.15M, and strong technical momentum (MACD histogram of 14.3, price above both 50-day and 200-day MAs) support a buy despite the 96.4% EV/EBITDA premium to peers and $106.4M in 24-month net insider selling.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 45.3x P/E and 39.3x EV/EBITDA — 96.4% above the peer median — any growth deceleration could trigger sharp multiple contraction.
  • Cycle peak risk. Q4 FY2026 revenue grew 45% YoY, a dramatic acceleration from FY2025's 18.6%; optics manufacturing is cyclical and this may represent peak demand.
  • Persistent insider selling. 24-month insider activity shows net selling of $106.4M with 91 dispositions versus 46 acquisitions, including recent code-A grants that are not open-market purchases.
  • FCF deterioration. FY2025 FCF margin compressed to 6.04% from 12.68% as capex tripled to $121.8M from $47.5M, signaling capacity investment that may not yield near-term returns.

What would change my mind

Q1 FY2027 guidance. Revenue guidance implies sustained 30%+ YoY growthbullish
Gross margin trend. Gross margin compresses below 11% on a quarterly basis, signaling pricing pressure or mix shiftbearish
Smart money flows. 13F-based smart money score rises above 0.025 or turns negative in next filingbullish
Open-market insider sales. Insiders accelerate disposition count beyond the recent 91-over-24-month pace with code-D or open-market sellsbearish

Where this comes from: MarketBeat news, published 2026-08-17 · Zacks news, published 2026-08-17 · peer_relative · peer_relative. Orin's read on FN; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$1.1B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.1B0.0% of fund
Fmr$1.0B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$908.3M0.0% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$833.0M0.0% of fund
State Street$737.0M0.0% of fund

91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 120 Form 4 filings, net −$86.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E30.3×53.3×
EV/EBITDA25.3×
P/S3.09×
P/B5.8×
What the price assumes

87.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

24 firms · 2026-08-17
Consensus target

$770

$739$800 · +92% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 18 buy or overweight
  • 6 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 34.7× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
FNFabrinet$14B30.3×25.3×12.0%10.2%21%
ENTGEntegris, Inc.$23B75.5×30.5×45.5%9.2%8%
FTVFortive Corporation$17B32.7×18.8×63.2%12.4%9%
GENGen Digital Inc.$16B15.1×10.1×78.0%20.7%42%
LITELumentum Holdings Inc.$73B41.7%-230.1%-300%
MKSIMKS Inc.$18B40.2×22.8×44.1%10.1%16%
TRMBTrimble Inc.$14B57.3×68.4%-2.8%-2%
ZBRAZebra Technologies Corporation$18B34.7×17.8×48.9%9.2%15%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 16.1×FY26 39.7×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $400.85
52-week range$354 – $749
Analyst targets$739 – $800
At sector P/E (53×)$704

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.