Fox Corporation FOXA
Fox Corporation closed fiscal 2026 with revenue of $17.13B (+5.1% YoY) and an operating margin of 19.5%, but net income fell 25.5% to $1.69B and free cash flow dropped to $1.47B from $2.99B as capex nearly doubled to $502M, showing that World Cup-driven ad strength came at a steep cost. The stock has rallied to $69.21 with RSI at 72.5 — well into overbought territory — and smart money has turned slightly negative (score -0.0078 as of Q2 2026), suggesting institutional conviction is fading even as price momentum persists.
At 15.8x earnings and 10.0x EV/EBITDA the valuation remains reasonable versus a 26.3x peer median, but declining profitability, the unresolved Roku deal, and stretched technicals keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Profitability deterioration. FY2026 net income fell 25.5% YoY to $1.69B and EPS dropped to $3.84 from $4.91, while FCF margin compressed to 8.6% from 18.4%, signaling that content cost inflation is outpacing revenue growth.
- Roku acquisition overhang. The pending Roku deal introduces material execution and regulatory risk; Roku withheld guidance citing the Fox deal, and the transaction's terms and integration plan remain unresolved as of August 2026.
- Overbought technicals. RSI-14 at 72.5 with the stock trading at $69.21, well above both the 50-day MA ($57.99) and 200-day MA ($63.34), increases the probability of a near-term pullback.
- Smart money outflow. Institutional smart money score has deteriorated from +0.0488 in Q3 2025 to -0.0078 as of Q2 2026, with fund count rising to 60 but net positioning turning slightly negative.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy 0.0507 · FMP fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025; derived_metrics net_income_growth_yoy -0.2554, eps_growth_yoy -0.2179 · FMP fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · Technicals as of 2026-08-24. Orin's read on FOXA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FOXA filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 15 Jun | Fox Corporation entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Roku, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 11 Jun | Fox Corporation extended the employment agreements for Executive Chair and CEO Lachlan K. | read |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 12 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 11 May | Net income attributable to Fox Corporation stockholders fell 52% to $166 million in the March 2026 quarter from $346 million in the March 2025 quarter, driven by a $499 million… | read |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 26 Mar | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 26 Mar | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $910.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $659.3M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $644.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $464.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $408.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $339.0M | 0.0% of fund |
81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 21 Form 4 filings, net $14.5M. Of the 21 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FOXA
Orin answers questions about FOXA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.7× | 11.4× | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4× | 7.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.46× | 1.30× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.14σ from its own mean).
7.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$72
$60 – $95 · +14% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOXAFox Corporation | $28B | 14.7× | 9.4× | 49.4% | 9.8% | 15% |
| CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | $16B | 3.0× | 5.6× | 56.6% | 9.1% | 30% |
| LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $40B | — | 24.5× | 44.8% | 0.5% | 73% |
| NBISNebius Group N.V. | $58B | — | 63.2× | 58.6% | 4.5% | 1% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 387.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $119 | $68.66 · +73% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $126 | $68.66 · +84% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.