Fox Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fox Corporation's pending acquisition of Roku, announced June 15, 2026, transforms the company into a direct-to-consumer streaming platform and has already drawn a Bank of America upgrade to Buy with a price target of $85, up from $54, on expectations of roughly $700 million in additional annual earnings by 2028.
The stock trades at 15.0x earnings and 7.7x EV/EBITDA — a 31.5% and 15.9% discount to peer medians — while sitting above both its 50-day ($65.33) and 200-day ($62.59) moving averages with a bullish MACD crossover as of October 20, 2026. FY2026 revenue grew 5.1% to $17.13B with a 19.5% operating margin, and Fox has beaten EPS estimates in eight consecutive quarters, though the 25.5% net income decline and FCF margin compression to 8.6% from 18.4% warrant monitoring as the Roku integration approaches.
What could go wrong
- Roku integration execution. The Roku acquisition is transformative but unproven; Fox has no history operating a large streaming platform, and integration costs or strategic missteps could erode the projected $700M annual earnings uplift cited by BofA.
- Profitability deterioration. FY2026 net income fell 25.5% YoY to $1.685B and FCF margin compressed to 8.6% from 18.4% in FY2025, driven partly by elevated capex of $502M — a trend that could worsen with Roku integration costs.
- Cord-cutting headwinds. Fox's core Cable Network Programming segment remains exposed to MVPD subscriber declines; the Roku deal is partly a hedge, but legacy revenue erosion could offset streaming gains.
- Smart money apathy. Institutional smart money score is essentially neutral at -0.00 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.038 in Q3 2025, with fund count rising but conviction flat — suggesting limited institutional enthusiasm ahead of the deal close.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 19 Oct · news, 16 Oct · FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on FOXA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.3% over twelve months, from $61.27 on 27 Oct 2025 to $64.53 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $76.11 on 6 Jan 2026; the last close is 15.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 33.6M, on 15 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FOXA filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 15 Jun | Fox Corporation entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Roku, Inc. on June 15, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 11 Jun | Fox Corporation extended the employment agreements for Executive Chair and CEO Lachlan K. Murdoch and CFO Steven Tomsic through June 30, 2030. | read |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 12 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 11 May | Net income attributable to Fox Corporation stockholders fell 52% to $166 million in the March 2026 quarter from $346 million in the March 2025 quarter, driven by a $499 million… | read |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 26 Mar | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 26 Mar | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $910.9M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $659.3M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $644.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $464.9M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $408.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $339.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $213.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $187.8M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $168.8M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 47 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.5M. Of the 47 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FOXA
Orin answers questions about FOXA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 11.8×); the typical Communication Services company on the NASDAQ is at 18.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.8×above usual | 11.8× | 18.9× |
| P/S | 1.50×above usual | 1.16× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6×above usual | 6.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.1×above usual | 1.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $70.75 (from $60 to $85) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$70.75
$60 – $85 · +10% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOXAFox Corporation | $27B | 14.8× | 7.6× | 36.6% | 9.8% | 15% |
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $190B | 22.7× | 10.0× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | $260B | 17.8× | 7.3× | 50.7% | 29.7% | 50% |
| NWSNews Corporation | $16B | 25.9× | 10.3× | 56.9% | 6.8% | 7% |
| SKYDParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $8B | lost money | n/m | 28.8% | −2.1% | −5% |
| WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $78B | lost money | 7.8× | 47.2% | −8.8% | −9% |
- SKYD, WBD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- SKYD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $118 a share — 107% above the $57.02 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $118 | 107% above $57.02 |
| Levered | $106 | 86% above $57.02 |
- The price has moved 13% since the models were computed; they have not been recomputed.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.