Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT
Federal Realty merits a hold as the stock has pulled back below its 50-day MA to $118.02 with RSI at 37.93 and a bearish MACD histogram, despite solid FY2025 fundamentals including 6.35% revenue growth to $1.28B and 40.1% EPS growth to $4.79. The company trades at a modest P/E discount to peers (23.6x vs 24.7x median) but recently issued $400M in 3.500% exchangeable senior notes on top of total debt that already grew to $5.03B in FY2025 from $4.56B in FY2024, and insiders have been net sellers (-$3.6M over 24 months).
The oversold technicals and slightly positive smart money score (0.0121 as of Q2 2026) suggest stabilization is possible, but current downward momentum and rising leverage warrant patience rather than new commitment.
What could go wrong
- Rising leverage. Total debt grew to $5.03B in FY2025 from $4.56B in FY2024, and the August 2026 issuance of $400M in exchangeable senior notes at 3.500% due 2031 adds further balance sheet pressure.
- Technical deterioration. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $122.62 with RSI at 37.93 and negative MACD histogram of -0.57, signaling bearish short-term momentum.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately $3.6M in shares across 23 transactions, with no cluster buying detected.
- Gross margin anomaly. FY2025 gross margin of 9.73% is a sharp drop from 67.42% in FY2024, suggesting either a reporting change or cost pressure that warrants monitoring.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · peer_relative · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 fundamentals. Orin's read on FRT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FRT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $885.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $783.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $690.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $667.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $313.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $312.2M | 0.1% of fund |
78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 23 Form 4 filings, net −$3.6M. Of the 23 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FRT
Orin answers questions about FRT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.0× | 31.7× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0× | 16.8× | — |
| P/S | 7.14× | 7.51× | — |
| P/B | 2.8× | 2.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.01σ from its own mean).
12.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$130
$117 – $149 · +19% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust | $10B | 22.0× | 14.0× | 54.0% | 32.7% | 13% |
| KIMKimco Realty Corporation | $15B | 25.0× | 14.7× | 54.8% | 27.7% | 6% |
| ORealty Income Corporation | $52B | 40.4× | 12.2× | 68.6% | 22.3% | 3% |
| REGRegency Centers Corporation | $13B | 20.7× | 15.6× | 35.1% | 38.2% | 10% |
| SPGSimon Property Group, Inc. | $66B | 14.5× | 12.2× | 84.6% | 66.4% | 109% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $148 | $124.59 · +19% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $25 | $124.59 · −80% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.