First Solar, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
First Solar remains fundamentally strong — FY2025 revenue of $5.22B grew 24.1% YoY with a 30.6% operating margin and FCF swinging to +$1.19B — yet Q2 2026 revenue declined 3.7% YoY, the first contraction in recent quarters, signaling that the growth deceleration is real even as EPS beat estimates by 35.2%.
At a PE of ~11x, the stock trades 35.5% below the peer median of 17.0x, but persistent 24-month insider net selling of $49.8M, a smart money score near zero (0.01 as of Q2 2026), and a last close of $177.82 sitting well below both the 50-day ($205.04) and 200-day ($222.07) moving averages indicate no near-term catalyst to reverse the downtrend. The patent infringement lawsuit against JA Solar is a defensive IP move, not an earnings driver, while elevated put option activity reflects bearish positioning. The stock is too cheap to sell but lacks a clear trigger to buy aggressively.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q2 2026 revenue fell 3.7% YoY after Q1 2026 grew 23.6%; if Q3 2026 confirms a trend, the premium multiple case weakens further.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 230,030 shares worth $49.8M with zero open-market acquisitions, suggesting limited internal confidence in near-term upside.
- Policy and subsidy uncertainty. Solar demand depends heavily on IRA-era incentives; any rollback or adverse policy shift could compress order book visibility.
- Technical breakdown accelerates. Stock at $177.82 is 20% below the 200-day MA of $222.07; a break below recent lows could trigger systematic selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on FSLR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 29.0% over twelve months, from $247.69 on 27 Oct 2025 to $175.85 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $318.25 on 3 Jun 2026; the last close is 44.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.8M, on 25 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FSLR filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 15 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G | 15 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 30 Jul | First Solar reported net sales of $1.056 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a decrease of 3.7% year-over-year, primarily due to lower revenue from customer contract… | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | First Solar, Inc. reported second quarter 2026 net sales of $1.06 billion, a 4% year-over-year decrease, driven by customer contract terminations. | read |
| 13G/A | 28 Jul | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $970.9M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $733.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $613.4M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $514.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $422.5M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $377.2M | 0.0% |
103 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 392 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$49.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FSLR
Orin answers questions about FSLR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 19.0×); the typical Energy company on the NASDAQ is at 15.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.8×below usual | 19.0× | 15.1× |
| P/S | 3.51×below usual | 5.37× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.8×below usual | 2.7× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 9.6× to 50.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $271 (from $197 to $326) — 54% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$271
$197 – $326 · +54% against the last close
- 22 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. | $19B | 10.8× | 7.1× | 44.0% | 32.5% | 18% |
| EQTEQT Corporation | $35B | 12.4× | 6.0× | 80.1% | 30.9% | 11% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $22B | 8.1× | 3.4× | 63.5% | 20.1% | 14% |
| HALHalliburton Company | $30B | 14.9× | 8.9× | 15.0% | 8.9% | 18% |
| NXTNextpower Inc. | $12B | 20.0× | 14.3× | 33.4% | 16.4% | 26% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $58B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.5% | 13.5% | 72% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 15.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now15.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.