First Solar, Inc. FSLR
First Solar's FY2025 fundamentals are excellent — revenue grew 24% to $5.22B, EPS reached $14.21, and free cash flow swung to +$1.19B from -$308M in FY2024 — but at least four securities fraud class actions with an August 24, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline and a class period spanning Feb 2025–Feb 2026 create a material legal overhang that caps near-term upside. The stock at $217.85 trades ~7% below both its 50-day ($233.89) and 200-day ($234.26) moving averages, 24-month insider net selling totals $49.5M with recent August sales continuing, and the smart money score at 0.0152 as of Q2 2026 is essentially flat.
While the 13.9x PE trades at a 23% discount to the peer median of 18.0x, the PS ratio of 4.5x is actually a 28% premium to peers, making the valuation case mixed rather than clearly cheap.
What could go wrong
- Securities litigation outcome. Multiple class action lawsuits allege violations of §§10(b) and 20(a) during a Feb 26, 2025–Feb 24, 2026 class period; an unfavorable outcome or settlement could materially impact financials and sentiment.
- Persistent insider selling. 24-month net insider selling of $49.5M across 375 transactions, with multiple officers selling in August 2026 at prices above the current $217.85 close, signals limited insider confidence at recent levels.
- Technical breakdown. Stock trades below both 50-day ($233.89) and 200-day ($234.26) moving averages; a sustained break below the $200 level could trigger further institutional selling.
- Valuation not as cheap as it appears. While PE of 13.9x is 23% below peer median, PS of 4.5x is 28% above peer median and EV/EBITDA of 9.3x is 11% above peers, suggesting the market may be pricing in peak earnings.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2024 · Technicals as of 2026-08-17 · Peer relative comparison. Orin's read on FSLR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FSLR filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 30 Jul | First Solar reported net sales of $1.056 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a decrease of 3.7% year-over-year, primarily due to lower revenue from customer contract… | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | First Solar, Inc. reported second quarter 2026 net sales of $1.06 billion, a 4% year-over-year decrease, driven by customer contract terminations. Net income per diluted share was… | read |
| 13G/A | 28 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 15 May | First Solar’s 2026 annual meeting on May 13 approved all management-backed items: ten directors elected with 61.7 million to 78.9 million votes each, PwC ratified 79.97 million for vs. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $970.9M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $733.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $613.4M | 0.0% of fund |
101 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 382 Form 4 filings, net −$49.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 34 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FSLR
Orin answers questions about FSLR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.8× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8× | 11.6× | — |
| P/S | 3.84× | 5.37× | — |
| P/B | 2.0× | 2.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.45σ from its own mean).
5.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$268
$197 – $324 · +52% against today's price
- 44 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 8 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. | $21B | 11.8× | 7.8× | 44.0% | 32.5% | 18% |
| EQTEQT Corporation | $32B | 11.2× | 6.1× | 68.4% | 30.7% | 12% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $20B | 7.5× | 3.5× | 63.1% | 20.8% | 15% |
| HALHalliburton Company | $28B | 17.3× | 8.1× | 15.1% | 7.2% | 15% |
| NXTNextpower Inc. | $12B | 20.6× | 15.0× | 33.4% | 16.4% | 26% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $61B | 26.9× | 16.8× | 36.6% | 13.5% | 72% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 31.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-85 | $253.94 · −133% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-19 | $253.94 · −108% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.