Fortinet, Inc. FTNT
Fortinet's fundamentals remain strong — FY2025 revenue grew 14.2% to $6.8B with operating margin at 30.6% and $2.23B in free cash flow, and management raised 2026 guidance on accelerating firewall and SASE demand. However, at $155.85 the stock trades at 54.5x PE (a 15% premium to the peer median) and 15.2x PS (a 134% premium to the peer median), pricing in much of the improvement after the shares' run well above the 200-day MA of $104.82.
Persistent insider net selling of $209.9M over 24 months with no cluster buying, a negative MACD histogram, and net income growth decelerating to 6.2% in FY2025 from 52.1% in FY2024 keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 15.2x PS — a 134% premium to the peer median of 6.5x — any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with the stock already well above its 200-day MA of $104.82.
- Insider selling persistence. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $209.9M in shares across 187 dispositions with no cluster buying, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Earnings growth deceleration. Net income growth slowed to 6.2% in FY2025 from 52.1% in FY2024, and EPS growth of 7.5% lags the 14.2% revenue growth, suggesting margin or cost pressures could constrain upside.
- Shareholder litigation overhang. Johnson Fistel announced an investigation on behalf of long-term shareholders for alleged breaches of fiduciary duty by officers and directors, which could create headline risk.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-17 · insider summary, 24-month window · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on FTNT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FTNT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 0.2% of fund |
107 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 326 Form 4 filings, net −$248.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FTNT
Orin answers questions about FTNT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 62.5× | 41.4× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.5× | 32.0× | — |
| P/S | 17.42× | 8.76× | — |
| P/B | 84.8× | — | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.50σ from its own mean).
22.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$159
$100 – $203 · −12% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 34 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $131B | 62.5× | 44.5× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $46B | 28.0× | 19.7× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock | $47B | — | 36.3× | 67.4% | -25.4% | -45% |
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | $76B | 35.9× | 22.4× | 50.0% | 17.4% | 86% |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $79B | 71.7× | 24.4× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $207B | 63.5× | 49.2× | 45.6% | 26.1% | 348% |
| TELTE Connectivity Ltd. | $62B | 20.8× | 13.5× | 35.4% | 15.8% | 23% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 38.9× | 32.1× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | $44B | 131.0× | 37.4× | 46.4% | 1.4% | 2% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 60.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $78 | $139.49 · −44% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $66 | $139.49 · −53% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.