Fortinet, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fortinet's revenue growth is clearly accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue grew 25.6% YoY to $2.05B, up from 14.2% for full-year FY2025, with EPS surprises of 20.6% and 32.5% in the last two reported quarters signaling strong operating leverage and margin expansion (FY2025 operating margin of 30.6% and FCF margin of 32.7%).
However, at $194.75 the stock trades at 68.1x PE (an 88.4% premium to the peer median of 36.1x) and 19.0x PS (a 218.3% premium to the peer median of 6.0x), with an RSI of 72.7 indicating overbought conditions after a run well above the 200-day MA of $121.30. Persistent insider net selling of $242M over 24 months with no cluster buying, combined with FY2025 net income growth decelerating to 6.2% from 52.1% in FY2024, keeps the risk/reward balanced despite the improving top-line trajectory.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation premium. FTNT trades at 68.1x PE vs peer median 36.1x (88.4% premium) and 19.0x PS vs peer median 6.0x (218.3% premium), leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Overbought technicals. RSI of 72.7 as of 9 Oct with the stock at $194.75, well above the 50-day MA of $167.37 and 200-day MA of $121.30, increases near-term pullback risk.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 2.18M shares worth $242M over 24 months with only 1 acquisition and no cluster buying, suggesting limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Net income growth deceleration. FY2025 net income growth slowed to 6.2% from 52.1% in FY2024, raising questions about whether accelerating revenue can translate into sustained bottom-line momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · peer comparison. Orin's read on FTNT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 117% over twelve months, from $85.29 on 27 Oct 2025 to $185.00 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $194.75 on 9 Oct 2026; the last close is 5.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 20.1M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All FTNT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.8B | 0.2% |
| Invesco | $3.8B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 0.2% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.4B | 0.2% |
| AQR Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% |
110 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 341 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$242.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FTNT
Orin answers questions about FTNT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 64.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 41.4×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 64.7×above usual | 41.4× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 18.0×above usual | 8.76× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.6×above usual | 32.0× | — |
| P/B | 87.8×above usual | 48.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $164 (from $100 to $210) — 12% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$164
$100 – $210 · −12% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 64.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 4 companies it is compared to have a P/E that says something (AKAM 29.0×, FFIV 36.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $136B | 64.7× | 47.6× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| AKAMAkamai Technologies, Inc. | $11B | 29.0× | 19.3× | 55.4% | 8.8% | 8% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $274B | n/m | n/m | 75.2% | 1.1% | 1% |
| FFIVF5, Inc. | $26B | 36.2× | 27.1× | 111.9% | 28.9% | 19% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $329B | n/m | 213× | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
- CRWD, PANW: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- CRWD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 64.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now64.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $75 a share — 60% below the $185.42 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $75 | 60% below $185.42 |
| Levered | $63 | 66% below $185.42 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.