Fortive Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Fortive's post-divestiture earnings momentum is genuine — the company has beaten EPS estimates in seven of the last eight quarters, including a 4.7% surprise in Q2 2026 (actual $0.74 vs. estimate $0.707), and raised its 2026 outlook in August — but the stock at $56.09 trades at 32.6x trailing P/E, a 63% premium to the peer median of 20.0x, on a depressed FY2025 EPS base of $1.74 and revenue that contracted 17.5% YoY to $5.14B.
Technicals remain weak with the stock below both its 50-day MA ($58.91) and 200-day MA ($58.26), and smart money has turned negative at -0.07 as of Q2 2026 versus +0.10 in Q4 2024. The 16.7% dividend increase and consistent EPS beats support a floor, but the valuation premium and deteriorating institutional positioning argue against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 32.6x P/E versus a peer median of 20.0x, any disappointment in core growth or margin trajectory could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with FY2025 revenue already down 17.5% YoY to $5.14B.
- Smart money exodus. Institutional sentiment has deteriorated from a smart money score of +0.10 in Q4 2024 to -0.07 as of Q2 2026, with fund count only modestly rising from 54 to 59, suggesting conviction is thinning.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $56.09 sits below both the 50-day ($58.91) and 200-day ($58.26) moving averages with RSI at 44.8 and a negative MACD line (-0.99), indicating persistent bearish momentum.
- Revenue trajectory uncertainty. Quarterly revenue YoY declines of -27.8% in Q2 2026 and -27.5% in Q1 2026 reflect post-divestiture comparability issues, but the magnitude raises questions about whether core organic growth can offset the smaller revenue base.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · 13F holdings. Orin's read on FTV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 24.6% over twelve months, from $49.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $61.62 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $64.09 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 3.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.0M, on 4 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FTV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Viking Global Investors | $1.2B | 3.5% |
| State Street | $832.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $781.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $556.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $543.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $448.4M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $260.2M | 0.0% |
88 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 133 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FTV
Orin answers questions about FTV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 35.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.6×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.8×above usual | 23.6× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 4.31×above usual | 3.22× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3×above usual | 13.9× | — |
| P/B | 3.1×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $63.33 (from $59 to $68) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$63.33
$59 – $68 · +3% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 35.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 31.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTVFortive Corporation | $19B | 35.8× | 18.3× | 63.2% | 12.4% | 9% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $56B | 35.8× | 24.0× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| DOVDover Corporation | $28B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.7% | 13.6% | 15% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 32.3× | 19.3× | 44.9% | 14.6% | 13% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $29B | 30.8× | 16.5× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $18B | 40.2× | 19.8× | 35.5% | 8.1% | 9% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.6× | 18.3× | 44.3% | 19.4% | 103% |
| MTDMettler-Toledo International Inc. | $34B | 36.3× | 27.1× | 59.0% | 22.2% | n/m |
| NDSNNordson Corporation | $18B | 32.7× | 20.9× | 55.3% | 18.6% | 18% |
| PHParker-Hannifin Corporation | $113B | 30.2× | 21.2× | 37.7% | 16.6% | 25% |
| TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated | $30B | 29.9× | 19.3× | 38.5% | 15.8% | 9% |
- MTD: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 35.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now35.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $52 a share — 14% below the $61.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $52 | 14% below $61.01 |
| Levered | $51 | 17% below $61.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.