Fortive Corporation FTV
Fortive's post-divestiture operating momentum is genuine — Q2 2026 delivered 6.7% core revenue growth, 12% adjusted EBITDA growth, and a 28% adjusted EPS increase, prompting a raised full-year outlook — but the stock trades at 34.2x trailing P/E, a 64% premium to the peer median of 20.9x, offering limited margin of safety against a still-depressed FY2025 revenue base of $5.14B and diluted EPS of $1.74. Technicals have deteriorated since the earnings-driven 7.1% drop on July 29: the stock at $58.90 sits below its 50-day MA of $61.14 with a negative MACD histogram and RSI near 40, while smart money has cooled from a score of 0.1035 in Q4 2025 to -0.0397 as of Q2 2026.
The 16.7% dividend increase signals management confidence, but the payout remains nominal and doesn't meaningfully change the risk/reward at current valuation levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 34.2x P/E versus a peer median of 20.9x, any deceleration in core growth or guidance miss could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially after the stock already fell 7.1% post-Q2 earnings.
- Smart money outflow. The smart money score deteriorated from 0.1035 in Q4 2025 to -0.0397 in Q2 2026, indicating institutional positioning has turned slightly net-negative even as fund count rose to 59.
- Post-divestiture revenue base. FY2025 revenue of $5.14B represents a 17.5% YoY decline from $6.23B in FY2024; if core growth does not sustain mid-single digits, the slimmed-down entity could struggle to justify its premium multiple.
- Technical breakdown. The stock is trading below its 50-day MA of $61.14 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.195 and RSI at 39.6; a break below the 200-day MA of $57.59 would signal further downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights, 2026-07-29 · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · GuruFocus news, 2026-07-29. Orin's read on FTV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All FTV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Viking Global Investors | $1.2B | 3.5% of fund |
| State Street | $832.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $781.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $556.8M | 0.0% of fund |
86 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 126 Form 4 filings, net $1.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FTV
Orin answers questions about FTV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.7× | 23.7× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.8× | 13.9× | — |
| P/S | 3.94× | 3.22× | — |
| P/B | 2.8× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.46σ from its own mean).
5.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$65
$59 – $68 · +15% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTVFortive Corporation | $17B | 32.7× | 18.8× | 63.2% | 12.4% | 9% |
| COHRCoherent, Inc. | $59B | 69.1× | 39.2× | 37.5% | 11.3% | 8% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc. | $26B | 23.7× | 13.7× | 73.3% | 22.7% | 30% |
| FFIVF5, Inc. | $26B | 35.9× | 25.3× | 82.2% | 22.0% | 20% |
| FNFabrinet | $14B | 30.3× | 25.3× | 12.0% | 10.2% | 21% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | $13B | 14.2× | 11.0× | 63.8% | 17.8% | 661% |
| GENGen Digital Inc. | $16B | 15.1× | 10.1× | 78.0% | 20.7% | 42% |
| ITGartner, Inc. | $12B | 16.0× | 10.3× | 68.9% | 12.0% | 401% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $14B | — | 57.3× | 68.4% | -2.8% | -2% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 37.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $59 | $61.29 · −4% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $58 | $61.29 · −5% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.