H.B. Fuller Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
H.B.
Fuller's revenue inflection is confirmed across two consecutive quarters — Q2 FY2026 revenue of $950M up 5.8% YoY and Q3 FY2026 revenue of $938M up 5.2% YoY — with EPS beats of $1.41 vs $1.37 estimate and $1.52 vs $1.47 estimate, while gross margins expanded to 31.7% in FY2025 from 25.7% in FY2022. A cluster buy by 8 insiders totaling ~$1.1M at roughly $50 per share in late September–early October 2026 signals management confidence, and Ancora's enhanced proposal to acquire the Building Adhesive Solutions segment for up to $1.4B in cash offers a credible deleveraging and portfolio simplification path. At a P/E of 14.1 versus a peer median of 20.6 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.7 versus 10.0, FUL trades at a meaningful discount despite improving fundamentals; the thesis is tempered by the freshly priced $850M debt offering at a 7.6% coupon adding to existing total debt of $2.0B.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and interest burden. The $850M senior notes at 7.6% due 2034 layer onto FY2025 total debt of $2.0B against stockholders' equity of $2.0B, increasing interest expense and constraining FCF which already declined from $259M in FY2023 to $121M in FY2025.
- AMS acquisition execution. The AMS acquisition introduces integration risk; if synergies and revenue growth do not materialize, the added debt load could pressure returns and the balance sheet.
- FCF deterioration trend. Free cash flow margin compressed from 7.4% in FY2023 to 3.5% in FY2025, and FCF of $121M in FY2025 is well below the $259M generated in FY2023, limiting financial flexibility.
- Stock below key moving averages. Last close of $51.32 trades below both the 50-day MA of $53.82 and the 200-day MA of $58.88 as of October 16, 2026, indicating a persistent downtrend despite improving fundamentals.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 29 Aug · earnings vs estimates and quarterly results · insider trades · news, 29 Sep. Orin's read on FUL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 17.5% over twelve months, from $60.09 on 27 Oct 2025 to $49.55 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $67.49 on 13 Feb 2026; the last close is 26.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.3M, on 24 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All FUL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $484.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $224.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $166.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $143.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $84.9M | 0.0% |
| Ancora Advisors | $73.3M | 1.4% |
| FMR | $63.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $49.5M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $46.3M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $43.9M | 0.0% |
60 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 420 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$977K. Of the 50 on hand, 11 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about FUL
Orin answers questions about FUL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.2×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.6×below usual | 24.2× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.75×below usual | 1.18× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6×below usual | 12.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.2×below usual | 2.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $62.33 (from $55 to $67) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$62.33
$55 – $67 · +26% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| AVNTAvient Corporation | $4B | 23.0× | 10.9× | 32.1% | 5.3% | 8% |
| CBTCabot Corp. | $4B | 20.5× | 7.0× | 22.9% | 5.2% | 12% |
| CENXCentury Aluminum Company | $3B | 3.3× | 2.8× | 24.7% | 29.7% | 70% |
| HWKNHawkins, Inc. | $3B | 37.2× | 18.8× | 22.4% | 7.5% | 16% |
| OLNOlin Corporation | $2B | lost money | 10.5× | 6.9% | −2.1% | −8% |
| PRMPerimeter Solutions, Inc. | $5B | 101× | 31.3× | 50.7% | 6.7% | 5% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | $3B | 23.5× | 14.2× | 48.5% | 35.7% | 21% |
- OLN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $72 a share — 45% above the $49.53 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $72 | 45% above $49.53 |
| Levered | $26 | 48% below $49.53 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.