General Dynamics Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Buy General Dynamics at $330.09 with RSI at 20.95 — the stock has fallen roughly 10% since early September into deeply oversold territory despite fundamentals that continue to accelerate.
FY2025 revenue grew 10.1% to $52.55B with EPS up 13.4% to $15.46, and Q2 2026 extended the streak with EPS of $4.25 beating estimates by 7.1%, the seventh consecutive positive surprise. At a P/E of 19.85 versus a peer median of 26.76 — a 25.8% discount — and with total debt reduced from $13.18B in 2021 to $9.79B in 2025, GD offers strong growth and balance-sheet improvement at a compressed multiple that the current selloff has made even more attractive.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin has declined steadily from 16.7% in FY2021 to 15.1% in FY2025, and operating margin has slipped from 10.8% to 10.2% over the same period, signaling cost pressure that could erode earnings quality.
- Downtrend intact. Stock at $330.09 trades well below both the 50-day MA of $369.51 and the 200-day MA of $355.21 as of 2 Oct, with MACD histogram negative at -1.15, indicating the bearish trend has not yet reversed.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 589,485 shares for $246.2M, and recent transactions are option exercises (code M) rather than open-market purchases.
- Smart money turning cautious. Smart money score declined from 0.03 as of 31 Dec 2025 to -0.01 as of 30 Jun, with fund count stable at 68, suggesting institutional positioning has softened.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 FY26 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · technicals, 2 Oct. Orin's read on GD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 0.3% over twelve months, from $353.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $354.89 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $395.97 on 10 Aug 2026; the last close is 10.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.2M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $2.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Wells Fargo | $1.5B | 0.2% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.5B | 0.3% |
134 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 312 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$270.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GD
Orin answers questions about GD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.2×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.3×above usual | 20.2× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.75×near usual | 1.68× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1×near usual | 14.9× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×above usual | 3.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $407 (from $360 to $465) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$407
$360 – $465 · +15% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 17.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $96B | 21.3× | 15.1× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $133B | 17.6× | 14.1× | 9.4% | 8.1% | 127% |
| HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11B | 16.7× | 11.7× | 12.6% | 5.0% | 13% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $48B | 26.0× | 14.5× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $144B | 22.0× | 15.1× | 11.7% | 8.2% | 79% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $78B | 17.4× | 12.3× | 20.0% | 10.4% | 26% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $263B | 31.2× | 17.4× | 21.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.8× | 9.3× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $332 a share — 7% below the $356.86 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $332 | 7% below $356.86 |
| Levered | $475 | 33% above $356.86 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.