Genesis Energy, L.P. GEL
Genesis Energy's turnaround is gaining credible traction: Q2 2026 net income swung to $42.9M from a near-breakeven loss in Q2 2025, operating cash flow surged to $180.7M from $47.0M, and full-year 2025 free cash flow turned positive at $88M after two years of outflows. Total debt was reduced by roughly $1.3B to $3.05B, the distribution was raised 21.2% to $0.80 annualized, and EV/EBITDA of 7.8x is reasonable for midstream.
The stock trades at $15.55, above its 50-day MA of $14.83 with bullish MACD momentum, though it remains below the 200-day MA of $16.19 — the inflection is real but not fully de-risked.
What could go wrong
- Thin equity cushion. Stockholders' equity collapsed to $238M in 2025 from $1.1B in 2024, leaving a razor-thin buffer against any asset writedowns or further losses.
- Revenue structural decline. Revenue nearly halved from $2.97B in 2024 to $1.63B in 2025, raising questions about the durability of the revenue base even as margins improved.
- Below 200-day moving average. At $15.55 the stock remains below its 200-day MA of $16.19, indicating the longer-term downtrend has not been decisively broken.
- Minimal institutional interest. Smart money score is just 0.0182 with only 15 funds holding as of March 2026, suggesting limited conviction from sophisticated investors.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Business Wire Q2 2026 results · FMP FY2025 · Business Wire distribution declaration · peer_relative. Orin's read on GEL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GEL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $267.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings | $109.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $68.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $61.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $57.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Infrastructure Capital Advisors | $9.1M | 0.5% of fund |
20 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 201 Form 4 filings, net −$1.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GEL
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 73.6× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.98× | — | — |
7.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$18
$18 – $18 · +23% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GELGenesis Energy, L.P. | $2B | 73.6× | 7.6× | 25.3% | 4.3% | 141% |
| CLMTCalumet Inc. | $5B | — | 276.6× | 6.6% | -3.0% | 15% |
| DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LP | $3B | 19.2× | 11.5× | 17.3% | 12.8% | -936% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 284.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.