Genesis Energy, L.P.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Genesis Energy's operational turnaround is gaining traction — Q2 2026 (quarter ended 30 Jun) delivered net income of $42.9M versus a $0.4M loss a year earlier, operating cash flow of $180.7M versus $47.0M, and a large EPS beat of $0.26 actual versus $0.02 estimated — but the units have since fallen to $14.32 as of 7 Oct, below both the 50-day MA of $15.32 and the 200-day MA of $16.11, with RSI at 41.5 and MACD marginally bearish.
FY2025 showed real progress with positive free cash flow of $88.3M and debt reduction to $3.05B from $4.35B in 2024, yet equity stands at just $238M against that $3.05B debt load, and the company missed EPS estimates in three of the four quarters preceding Q2 2026. One strong quarter does not yet offset the leverage risk and broken technical trend; hold pending confirmation that Q2's momentum is sustainable rather than a one-off.
What could go wrong
- Leverage fragility. Total debt of $3.05B against equity of only $238M as of FY2025 leaves minimal cushion; any operational setback could pressure the balance sheet and unit price sharply.
- Earnings volatility. GEL missed EPS estimates in three of four quarters before Q2 2026 (Q1 2026 actual -$0.06 vs. $0.16 estimated; Q4 2025 actual $0.04 vs. $0.28; Q3 2025 actual -$0.05 vs. $0.13), making the Q2 beat less reliable as a trend signal.
- Technical deterioration. Stock at $14.32 as of 7 Oct is below both the 50-day MA of $15.32 and 200-day MA of $16.11, with RSI at 41.5 and MACD histogram negative, suggesting the post-Q2 rally has fully unwound.
- Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue fell 45% YoY to $1.63B from $2.97B in 2024, and while margins improved, the top-line contraction raises questions about long-term growth sustainability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results and news · earnings vs estimates, Q2 2026 · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 7 Oct. Orin's read on GEL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 8.1% over twelve months, from $15.62 on 27 Oct 2025 to $14.36 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $18.49 on 5 Mar 2026; the last close is 22.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GEL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $267.4M | 0.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $109.4M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $68.8M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $61.4M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $57.1M | 0.0% |
| Infrastructure Capital Advisors | $9.1M | 0.5% |
| Bank of America | $8.7M | 0.0% |
| NEOS Investment Management | $8.5M | 0.0% |
| Blackstone | $8.2M | 0.0% |
| Callodine Capital Management | $6.9M | 0.4% |
21 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 196 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $295K. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GEL
Orin answers questions about GEL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 63.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — above its usual level (52.6×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 63.9×above usual | 52.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 0.82×above usual | 0.45× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3×below usual | 9.1× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 0.9× to 8.0× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 2 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $17 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$17
$17 – $17 · +18% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 63.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (DKL 17.9×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GELGenesis Energy, L.P. | $2B | 63.9× | 7.3× | 27.8% | 3.9% | n/m |
| CLMTCalumet Inc. | $4B | lost money | — | 6.6% | −3.0% | n/m |
| DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LP | $3B | 17.9× | 6.2× | 11.8% | 11.9% | n/m |
- CLMT: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- GEL, CLMT, DKL: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 63.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now63.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.