GE Vernova Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
GE Vernova's fundamental turnaround remains compelling—FY2025 revenue grew 8.9% to $38.1B with operating margin expanding from 2.3% to 3.7%, total debt eliminated, and FCF doubling to $3.71B—while Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to 21.9% YoY growth, supported by a $176B backlog and over $5B in data-center orders.
However, at $908.44 the stock trades at 25.63x EV/EBITDA, a 79% premium to the peer median of 14.33x, and has broken below both its 50-day ($962) and 200-day ($935) moving averages with a deeply negative MACD histogram of -8.96, signaling continued technical weakness. The 22% Q2 2026 EPS miss against estimates and persistent insider net selling of $18M over 24 months temper enthusiasm despite the pullback from prior levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. EV/EBITDA of 25.63x sits 79% above the peer median of 14.33x; any slowdown in order momentum could trigger a sharp de-rating toward peers.
- Margin fragility. Operating margin of 3.7% in FY2025 remains thin despite improvement from 2.3%; cost overruns or Wind segment losses could reverse the trajectory.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $908.44 is below both MA50 ($962) and MA200 ($935) with MACD histogram at -8.96 and RSI at 37.9, suggesting further downside risk.
- Insider and smart money outflows. Insiders net sold $18M over 24 months with zero acquisitions, and smart money score is negative at -0.08 as of Q2 2026 with fund count stagnant at 75.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on GEV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 53.2% over twelve months, from $584.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $895.08 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,174.86 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 23.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.4M, on 10 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GEV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $25.6B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $20.6B | 0.4% |
| FMR | $19.0B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $13.8B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.4B | 0.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $6.9B | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $6.7B | 0.4% |
| Capital World Investors | $5.9B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.5B | 0.3% |
| Norges Bank | $4.0B | 0.4% |
176 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 151 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$18.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GEV
Orin answers questions about GEV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.4× | — | 18.5× |
| P/S | 5.76× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 20.1× | — | — |
- Listed on 27 Mar 2024 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,258 (from $949 to $1,450) — 41% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,258
$949 – $1,450 · +41% against the last close
- 20 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $238B | 25.4× | 25.2× | 20.2% | 23.0% | 83% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | $92B | 25.1× | 14.5× | 22.2% | 11.1% | 15% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $173B | 14.8× | 16.3× | 62.4% | 39.9% | 20% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc. | $20B | 25.1× | 13.7× | 19.4% | 2.6% | 25% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $330 a share — 62% below the $876.70 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $330 | 62% below $876.70 |
| Levered | $641 | 27% below $876.70 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.