GE Vernova Inc. GEV
GE Vernova's turnaround remains impressive—FY2025 revenue grew 8.94% to $38.1B, operating margin expanded from 2.25% to 3.65%, FCF reached $3.71B, and total debt was eliminated—but the stock at $911.93 still trades at 27.0x EV/EBITDA, an 86% premium to the peer median of 14.5x, leaving little margin for error. The recent pullback from prior levels near $1,040 has improved the risk/reward, with RSI at 37 signaling oversold conditions and the price still above the 200-day MA of $877, but MACD remains deeply negative (histogram -8.34) and insiders have net sold $117M over 24 months.
The AI-power electrification thesis is validated by 68% electrification revenue growth and raised 2026 guidance, yet concerns about sustainability of AI capex commitments and thin operating margins warrant patience until technicals stabilize or valuation compresses further.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. EV/EBITDA of 27.0x is 86% above the peer median of 14.5x and PS of 5.87x is 56% above the peer median of 3.76x, demanding sustained high growth to justify the price.
- AI capex sustainability. A WSJ report on $3T in off-balance-sheet AI commitments recently pressured the stock, raising questions about whether data-center power demand forecasts will materialize.
- Insider selling. Insiders net sold $116.7M in shares over 24 months, including the Wind CEO selling in June 2026 and the CEO exercising options and selling in April 2026.
- Thin operating margins. Despite revenue of $38.1B, operating margin is only 3.65% in FY2025, meaning small cost or pricing pressures could materially impact profitability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on GEV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GEV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $20.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $19.0B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $13.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.4B | 0.4% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $6.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $6.7B | 0.4% of fund |
173 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 151 Form 4 filings, net −$116.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GEV
Orin answers questions about GEV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.0× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.2× | — | — |
| P/S | 6.13× | 1.20× | — |
| P/B | 21.3× | 7.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.72σ from its own mean).
24.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1266
$949 – $1450 · +33% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $254B | 27.0× | 28.2× | 20.2% | 23.0% | 83% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | $95B | 25.6× | 14.0× | 94.9% | 11.1% | 15% |
| CWENClearway Energy, Inc. | $6B | 39.6× | 14.2× | 53.0% | 5.8% | 2% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $89B | 17.1× | 11.1× | 68.2% | 15.7% | 10% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $161B | 17.2× | 15.1× | 71.8% | 32.0% | 17% |
| ORAOrmat Technologies, Inc. | $6B | 46.1× | 20.3× | 27.9% | 10.7% | 5% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 18.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $338 | $865.73 · −61% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $660 | $865.73 · −24% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.