Global Industrial Co
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Global Industrial's operational momentum is genuine — Q2 2026 revenue grew 7.7% to $386.6M with gross margin near 40.2% — but the stock has rallied to $41.50, above both the 50-day MA of $38.52 and the 200-day MA of $33.28, pricing in much of the improvement.
Reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.96 was inflated by a $26.2M IEEPA tariff refund; adjusted EPS of $0.54 actually declined from $0.65 a year earlier, and the P/E discount of 18.5x versus the peer median of 22.4x narrows considerably once that one-timer is stripped out. With RSI at 67.4 and P/S at 1.11x versus the peer median of 0.89x, the risk/reward is balanced until the company demonstrates sustained earnings leverage without tariff-related boosts.
What could go wrong
- Earnings quality deterioration. Q2 2026 reported EPS of $0.96 included a $26.2M IEEPA tariff refund; adjusted EPS of $0.54 declined from $0.65 a year earlier, meaning core profitability is not yet expanding.
- Valuation stretched on non-earnings metrics. P/S of 1.11x trades at a 23.5% premium to the peer median of 0.89x, and EV/EBITDA of 13.0x is 18.1% above the peer median of 11.0x, limiting upside if earnings disappoint.
- Technical overbought conditions. RSI at 67.4 with the stock 25% above the 200-day MA of $33.28 increases vulnerability to a pullback on any negative catalyst.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insider transactions show net share accumulation of 118,598 shares but net value of -$3.1M, with recent SVP-level sales at $39.62–$40.00 per share.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · news and earnings vs estimates, 5 Aug · technicals, 25 Sep · peer comparison. Orin's read on GIC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 27.9% over twelve months, from $34.86 on 27 Oct 2025 to $44.60 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $44.91 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 0.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 811k, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GIC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $107.0M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $53.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $20.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $16.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $11.6M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $10.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $7.5M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $7.4M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $5.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.3M | 0.0% |
50 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 171 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 15 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GIC
Orin answers questions about GIC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.7×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.9×above usual | 15.7× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.18×above usual | 0.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9×above usual | 11.3× | — |
| P/B | 5.0×above usual | 4.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: no firm's rating is on file. Every 12-month price target on file is $39 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 13% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$39
$39 – $39 · −13% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GICGlobal Industrial Co | $2B | 19.9× | 13.9× | 36.4% | 6.1% | 27% |
| BBSIBarrett Business Services, Inc. | $737M | 23.7× | 10.9× | 19.3% | 2.4% | 15% |
| GRCThe Gorman-Rupp Company | $2B | 26.9× | 15.2× | 32.5% | 10.2% | 17% |
| LMBLimbach Holdings, Inc. | $587M | 19.0× | 10.5× | 23.6% | 4.4% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $37 a share — 16% below the $44.16 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $37 | 16% below $44.16 |
| Levered | $34 | 22% below $44.16 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.