Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD
Gilead's FY2025 results show a strong profitability recovery with operating margin of 39.7% and diluted EPS of $6.78 (up 16.8% YoY), supported by $9.46B in free cash flow, but revenue growth remains modest at 2.4% YoY. Persistent insider selling — net $75.9M over 24 months across 171 dispositions — and a deteriorating smart money score turning slightly negative at -0.057 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, warrant caution.
With the stock at $146.74, roughly 11% above its 50-day moving average of $132.32 and RSI at 67.7, the risk/reward looks balanced; hold pending clearer evidence that HIV franchise momentum and pipeline catalysts can sustain top-line acceleration.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $75.9M over 24 months with 171 sales vs 88 acquisitions and no cluster buy signal as of 2026-08-20.
- Deteriorating smart money positioning. Smart money score declined from +0.145 in Q1 2026 to -0.057 as of Q2 2026, with fund count dropping from 68 to 67.
- Modest revenue growth. FY2025 revenue growth of 2.4% YoY lags the FY2024 pace of 6.0% and offers limited margin for pipeline setbacks.
- Elevated technicals near overbought. RSI at 67.7 and price 11% above the 50-day MA of $132.32 increase near-term pullback risk.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025; fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · insider summary. Orin's read on GILD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GILD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $8.4B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $7.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $5.2B | 0.6% of fund |
| Invesco | $5.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.5B | 0.2% of fund |
134 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 270 Form 4 filings, net −$80.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 26 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GILD
Orin answers questions about GILD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 331.5× | 12.5× | — |
| P/S | 6.16× | 3.95× | — |
| P/B | 15.9× | 5.1× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.36σ from its own mean).
7.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$151
$123 – $180 · +1% against today's price
- 39 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $188B | — | 331.5× | 79.6% | -10.6% | -16% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $240B | 27.4× | 17.1× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $139B | 15.0× | 10.4× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | $70B | 18.9× | 14.4× | 71.2% | 17.5% | 15% |
| DHRDanaher Corporation | $148B | 37.3× | 23.8× | 58.5% | 15.9% | 8% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $376B | 120.9× | 30.6× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $164B | 38.1× | 17.9× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
| SYKStryker Corporation | $118B | 31.7× | 20.7× | 65.2% | 14.4% | 16% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $176 | $121.84 · +44% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $205 | $121.84 · +68% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.