Orin
GILDNasdaq·Drug Manufacturers - General

Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD

Market cap $186.3BP/E no earnings to divide byGross margin 79.6%Reports Thu 29 Oct, after the close
$150.27
−1.10 (−0.73%)live 09:35 ET
52-wk $108.46 – $157.29
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 25 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Gilead's FY2025 results show a strong profitability recovery with operating margin of 39.7% and diluted EPS of $6.78 (up 16.8% YoY), supported by $9.46B in free cash flow, but revenue growth remains modest at 2.4% YoY. Persistent insider selling — net $75.9M over 24 months across 171 dispositions — and a deteriorating smart money score turning slightly negative at -0.057 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, warrant caution.

With the stock at $146.74, roughly 11% above its 50-day moving average of $132.32 and RSI at 67.7, the risk/reward looks balanced; hold pending clearer evidence that HIV franchise momentum and pipeline catalysts can sustain top-line acceleration.

What could go wrong

  • Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $75.9M over 24 months with 171 sales vs 88 acquisitions and no cluster buy signal as of 2026-08-20.
  • Deteriorating smart money positioning. Smart money score declined from +0.145 in Q1 2026 to -0.057 as of Q2 2026, with fund count dropping from 68 to 67.
  • Modest revenue growth. FY2025 revenue growth of 2.4% YoY lags the FY2024 pace of 6.0% and offers limited margin for pipeline setbacks.
  • Elevated technicals near overbought. RSI at 67.7 and price 11% above the 50-day MA of $132.32 increase near-term pullback risk.

What would change my mind

HIV franchise reacceleration. Quarterly HIV revenue growth exceeds 8% YoY driven by Biktarvy and PrEP uptakebullish
Pipeline regulatory setback. FDA issues a complete response letter or clinical hold on a key oncology or HIV assetbearish
Insider buying reversal. Net insider transactions turn positive over a 3-month window or a cluster buy emergesbullish
Revenue growth stall. Two consecutive quarters of YoY revenue growth below 1%bearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025; fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · insider summary. Orin's read on GILD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$10.2B0.2% of fund
Fmr$8.4B0.4% of fund
State Street$7.7B0.2% of fund
Capital World Investors$5.2B0.6% of fund
Invesco$5.0B0.4% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$4.5B0.2% of fund

134 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 270 Form 4 filings, net −$80.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 26 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
EV/EBITDA331.5×12.5×
P/S6.16×3.95×
P/B15.9×5.1×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.36σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

58 firms · 2026-09-03
Consensus target

$151

$123$180 · +1% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 39 buy or overweight
  • 18 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 31.7× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.$188B331.5×79.6%-10.6%-16%
AMGNAmgen Inc.$240B27.4×17.1×72.7%22.9%89%
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company$139B15.0×10.4×70.2%18.9%47%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation$70B18.9×14.4×71.2%17.5%15%
DHRDanaher Corporation$148B37.3×23.8×58.5%15.9%8%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.$376B120.9×30.6×75.4%4.8%7%
PFEPfizer Inc.$164B38.1×17.9×71.3%6.8%5%
SYKStryker Corporation$118B31.7×20.7×65.2%14.4%16%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 11.9×FY25 17.9×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$176$121.84 · +44%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$205$121.84 · +68%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $150.27
52-week range$108 – $157
Analyst targets$123 – $180
Standard DCF$176 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $121.84
Levered DCF$205 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $121.84

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.