Gilead Sciences, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Gilead's underlying franchise looks intact — FY2025 delivered a 39.7% operating margin, $6.78 diluted EPS, and $9.46B in free cash flow, while Q1 2026 was clean at $1.61 EPS and Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to 10.2% YoY growth at $7.8B.
However, Q2 2026 was dominated by a $10.4B operating loss (EPS -$8.45) that renders headline P/E (-60.1x) and EV/EBITDA (162.5x) meaningless and likely reflects a large one-time charge whose details remain unclear in the available data. The stock at $156.19 trades above its 50-day ($146.84) and 200-day ($138.03) moving averages with RSI at 63.4 and positive MACD, but persistent insider net selling (~$99.5M over 24 months, zero acquisitions) and the need for clarity on the Q2 charge argue for patience.
What could go wrong
- Q2 2026 charge unresolved. The $10.4B operating loss in Q2 2026 (EPS -$8.45) likely stems from a one-time impairment or acquisition-related charge, but without full disclosure the scope and cash implications remain uncertain.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold ~748,837 shares worth ~$99.5M with zero open-market acquisitions; CEO O'Day and CFO Dickinson both sold in October 2026.
- Revenue growth still modest ex-acceleration. FY2025 revenue growth was just 2.4% YoY; while Q2 2026 showed 10.2% acceleration, sustainability of that pace is unproven.
- Valuation distortion. P/E of -60.1x and EV/EBITDA of 162.5x are distorted by the Q2 charge, making relative valuation vs peers (median P/E 42.1x, EV/EBITDA 26.8x) unreliable until normalized earnings are visible.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on GILD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 32.0% over twelve months, from $120.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $159.08 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. That is its highest close in that time.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 24.4M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GILD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $15.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.2B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $8.4B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $7.7B | 0.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $5.2B | 0.6% |
| Invesco | $5.0B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.5B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $3.8B | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.0B | 0.2% |
137 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 296 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$99.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 21 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GILD
Orin answers questions about GILD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 6.48× its yearly sales — above its usual level (3.95×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 20.8× |
| P/S | 6.48×above usual | 3.95× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 165×above usual | 12.5× | — |
| P/B | 16.7×above usual | 5.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 14.6× to 243× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $157 (from $126 to $185) — 2% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$157
$126 – $185 · −2% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 42.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $197B | lost money | 165× | 79.6% | −10.6% | −16% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $506B | 80.7× | 26.9× | 71.5% | 9.8% | n/m |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $647B | 40.7× | 21.9× | 68.8% | 16.2% | 20% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.21T | 42.9× | 28.9× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $350B | 113× | 28.5× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
- ABBV: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $135 a share — 14% below the $158.09 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $135 | 14% below $158.09 |
| Levered | $161 | 2% above $158.09 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.