Globe Life Inc. GL
Globe Life's pullback to $171.46 from recent highs, combined with a newly authorized $2.5 billion buyback representing up to 17.7% of outstanding shares, creates an attractive entry point for a company trading at 11.2x earnings — a 28.3% discount to the peer median of 15.6x. FY2025 fundamentals show accelerating profitability with operating margin expanding to 24.4% and diluted EPS of $14.06 up 17.8% YoY, while smart money flows turned positive (SM score 0.0208 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30) and the RSI at 36.1 signals oversold conditions.
The elevated EV/EBITDA of 25.4x versus peers reflects Globe Life's capital-light insurance model and should not overshadow the earnings power and aggressive capital return trajectory.
What could go wrong
- Elevated healthcare claims. Zacks notes higher health claims remain a risk for accident & health insurers amid rising medical costs and inflation, which could compress margins that have been steadily expanding.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 213,175 shares worth $64.2M, with the CEO and EVP both exercising options and partially selling in late July–August 2026.
- EV/EBITDA premium. EV/EBITDA of 25.4x is 177.7% above the peer median of 9.1x, suggesting the market prices in structural differences but leaves room for de-rating if growth disappoints.
- Short-term technical weakness. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $177.54 with a bearish MACD histogram of -1.33, indicating near-term momentum has not yet stabilized.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · news (PRNewsWire 2026-08-10) · fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025. Orin's read on GL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $907.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $825.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $747.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $667.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $500.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $346.7M | 0.0% of fund |
72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 284 Form 4 filings, net −$65.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GL
Orin answers questions about GL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.0× | 9.7× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.8× | 8.7× | — |
| P/S | 2.10× | 1.89× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.25σ from its own mean).
-1.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$183
$166 – $200 · +10% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 7 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $13B | 11.0× | 24.8× | 17.0% | 19.6% | 20% |
| AIZAssurant, Inc. | $13B | 12.3× | 7.9× | 78.1% | 7.9% | 18% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 18.5× | 10.1× | 25.6% | 4.6% | 13% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $337 | $162.99 · +107% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $455 | $162.99 · +179% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.