Globe Life Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Globe Life trades at 11.15x earnings — a 24.7% discount to the peer median of 14.81x — with FY2025 EPS of $14.06 up 17.8% YoY and operating margin expanding to 24.4%, but Q2 2026 (quarter ended 30 Jun) reported negative gross profit of -$804M and operating income of -$630M, an anomaly that remains unexplained heading into Q3 2026 earnings releasing today.
Revenue growth is accelerating (+8.0% YoY in Q2 2026 vs +5.3% in Q1 2026), smart money flows turned modestly positive (SM score 0.01 as of 30 Jun with fund count rising to 59 from 50 a year earlier), and the stock has recovered above its 200-day MA of $158.93 with RSI at 54.52, but three consecutive slight earnings misses and persistent net insider selling of 710,008 shares ($107.9M) over 24 months warrant caution. The call is hold pending Q3 2026 results to determine whether the Q2 operating-line distortion was a one-time event or a structural issue.
What could go wrong
- Q2 operating-line anomaly unresolved. Q2 2026 (quarter ended 30 Jun) showed negative gross profit of -$804M and operating income of -$630M despite positive net income of $288M; if Q3 2026 reveals a similar pattern, it signals a structural problem in underwriting or reserves.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 710,008 shares for $107.9M with zero open-market acquisitions; recent option exercises at $103.23 were immediately sold at $169–$170, continuing the disposition pattern.
- Elevated EV/EBITDA vs peers. GL's EV/EBITDA of 24.93x is 153% above the peer median of 9.85x, suggesting either a debt structure or earnings-quality discrepancy that complicates the apparent PE discount.
- Earnings miss streak. Three consecutive slight EPS misses (Q4 2025 -1.5%, Q1 2026 -1.2%, Q2 2026 -1.6%) indicate estimates may still be too high heading into Q3 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results. Orin's read on GL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 16.3% over twelve months, from $134.99 on 27 Oct 2025 to $156.99 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $186.02 on 6 Aug 2026; the last close is 15.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.9M, on 23 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $987.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $907.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $825.4M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $747.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $667.4M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $500.4M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $346.7M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $270.9M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $226.4M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $163.5M | 0.0% |
74 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 285 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$110.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 23 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GL
Orin answers questions about GL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 11.9×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.3×below usual | 11.9× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.92×near usual | 1.89× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.7×above usual | 8.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.0×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $175 (from $165 to $197) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$175
$165 – $197 · +11% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.3× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (MET 12.9×, PRU 10.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $12B | 10.3× | 24.7× | n/a | 18.9% | 20% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 12.9× | 8.4× | n/a | 6.2% | 19% |
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $40B | 10.3× | 8.6× | n/a | 5.9% | 12% |
- GL, MET, PRU: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.