General Motors Company GM
GM's profitability recovery is uneven — FY2025 gross margin compressed to 10.9% from 17.4% with EPS down 48.7%, and while Q1 2026 operating income rebounded to $2.9B, Q2 2026 fell to $1.5B as gross profit declined from $5.0B to $3.7B sequentially. Management has raised 2026 guidance twice and targets the high end, but at 41.9x trailing P/E versus the peer median of 27.9x, the stock prices in a margin recovery not yet visible in the quarterly trend.
Free cash flow turned positive to $11.1B in FY2025 and EV/EBITDA at 13.9x sits below the peer median of 20.2x, but insiders net sold $250.8M over 24 months and the stock has slipped below its 50-day MA to $80.57 with RSI at 39.4, keeping risk/reward balanced.
What could go wrong
- Sequential margin erosion. Q2 2026 gross profit fell to $3.7B from $5.0B in Q1 2026 and operating income dropped from $2.9B to $1.5B, suggesting pricing pressure or cost inflation persists despite raised guidance.
- Valuation de-rating. At 41.9x trailing P/E — 50% above the peer median of 27.9x — any guidance cut or margin disappointment could trigger a sharp re-rating toward peers.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $250.8M of stock over 24 months with 108 dispositions against 81 acquisitions, and recent EVP sales at $88–$89 per share signal limited confidence at these levels.
- Cyclical demand risk. CFO cited consumer resilience as a driver of raised guidance, but auto-cycle sensitivity and elevated total debt of $130.3B leave margins exposed if demand softens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · quarterly_results Q1 and Q2 2026 · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on GM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $2.4B | 0.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
123 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 189 Form 4 filings, net −$250.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GM
Orin answers questions about GM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.3× | 8.5× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7× | 7.2× | — |
| P/S | 0.39× | 0.32× | — |
| P/B | 1.2× | 0.9× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+3.42σ from its own mean).
-7.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $11.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$93
$33 – $130 · +13% against today's price
- 34 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $73B | 40.3× | 13.7× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $47B | 18.3× | 14.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | -90% |
| FFord Motor Company | $50B | — | — | 10.8% | -3.9% | -19% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $70B | 45.4× | 26.9× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.2× | 20.0× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $64B | 14.7× | 12.0× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 48.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-188 | $79.97 · −335% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $36 | $79.97 · −55% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.