General Motors Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
GM's Q3 2026 earnings (reported 20 Oct) delivered a $20B share repurchase authorization and an upgraded full-year outlook, but actual EPS of $3.70 barely cleared the $3.69 estimate — a sharp deceleration from the 11.9%–41.8% beats of the prior three quarters, signaling consensus has caught up.
FY2025 operating margin collapsed to 1.6% from 6.8% in FY2024, punctuated by a Q4 2025 operating loss of $3.6B, and Q2 2026 operating income of $1.5B marked a sequential decline from Q1 2026's $2.9B. At $77.09, below both the 50-day ($84.04) and 200-day ($80.68) moving averages, with insiders net selling $181.8M over 24 months and smart money at -0.04 as of Q2 2026, the $20B buyback provides support but unproven margin recovery and cautious guidance cap the upside.
What could go wrong
- Margin trajectory. FY2025 gross margin compressed to 10.9% from 17.4% in FY2024; Q2 2026 operating income declined sequentially to $1.5B from $2.9B in Q1 2026
- Input cost pressure. News reports cite rising input costs weighing on FY26 profit guidance despite the Q3 beat and $20B buyback
- Insider selling. Net dispositions of $181.8M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions across 189 transactions
- Leverage and capital allocation. Total debt of $130.3B against stockholders' equity of $61.1B as of FY2025, alongside the new $20B buyback commitment
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates · news, 20 Oct · fundamentals · quarterly results. Orin's read on GM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 16.1% over twelve months, from $69.38 on 27 Oct 2025 to $80.54 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $90.30 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 10.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 24.7M, on 20 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All GM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $2.4B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.4B | 0.2% |
| D. E. Shaw | $1.2B | 0.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.1B | 0.1% |
126 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 189 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$181.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GM
Orin answers questions about GM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 8.3×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.2×above usual | 8.3× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.37×above usual | 0.32× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6×above usual | 6.8× | — |
| P/B | 1.1×above usual | 0.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $101 (from $61 to $130) — 25% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$101
$61 – $130 · +25% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.2× its last 12 months of profit. None of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $68B | 18.2× | 11.6× | 9.0% | 2.1% | 6% |
| FFord Motor Company | $47B | lost money | — | 10.8% | −3.9% | −19% |
- F: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $13 a share — 84% below the $80.64 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Levered | $13 | 84% below $80.64 |
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.