Generac Holdings Inc. GNRC
Generac trades at 47.8x trailing earnings — a 53% premium to the peer median of 31.2x — despite FY2025 EPS collapsing to $2.69 from $5.39 and operating margin compressing to 6.9% from 12.5% as of the fiscal year ended 2025-12-31. The $1.6B data center backlog and improving smart money score (0.0374 as of 2026-06-30, up from 0.0022 a year earlier) provide a credible growth catalyst, but net insider selling of $30.2M over 24 months with no cluster buying, persistent residential weakness, and a lower-margin C&I mix keep near-term profitability depressed.
The stock sits below its 50-day MA of $235.11 but above the 200-day MA of $206.29, reflecting an unresolved tug-of-war between the data center narrative and deteriorating fundamentals. Hold until margin recovery or backlog conversion is proven in reported results.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 47.8x P/E and 24.3x EV/EBITDA — 53% and 51% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in data center execution could trigger a sharp de-rating toward peer multiples.
- Margin deterioration persists. Operating margin fell to 6.9% in FY2025 from 12.5% in FY2024; if lower-margin C&I revenue from data center work continues to dilute mix, profitability may not recover quickly enough to justify the premium.
- Insider selling signal. Net insider dispositions of $30.2M over 24 months with 69 sales vs 53 acquisitions and no cluster buying suggests insiders are not confident enough to accumulate at current levels.
- Residential demand weakness. Revenue declined 2.0% YoY in FY2025 to $4.21B; if residential standby generator demand remains soft, the data center backlog alone may not offset core business erosion.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative (as of 2026-08-19) · fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · news article, Zacks, published 2026-08-03 · smart_money, as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on GNRC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GNRC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $710.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $654.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $498.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $453.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $280.2M | 0.1% of fund |
108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 135 Form 4 filings, net −$31.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GNRC
Orin answers questions about GNRC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 44.9× | 39.0× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.0× | 17.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.63× | 1.97× | — |
| P/B | 4.0× | 3.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.86σ from its own mean).
18.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$304
$250 – $375 · +48% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc. | $12B | 44.9× | 23.0× | 39.5% | 5.8% | 10% |
| AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 29.9× | 22.9× | 30.3% | 8.3% | 22% |
| AOSA. O. Smith Corporation | $8B | 16.1× | 11.6× | 38.6% | 13.1% | 27% |
| CRCrane Company | $12B | 35.3× | 22.5× | 41.7% | 13.0% | 16% |
| DCIDonaldson Company, Inc. | $10B | 22.1× | 17.9× | 34.6% | 11.7% | 28% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $10B | 26.4× | 15.5× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| POOLPool Corporation | $6B | 14.8× | 12.5× | 29.6% | 7.4% | 32% |
| RRXRegal Rexnord Corporation | $10B | 31.0× | 12.0× | 37.8% | 5.3% | 5% |
| SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc. | $9B | 30.6× | 17.0× | 40.2% | 11.3% | 12% |
| WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 30.9× | 19.1× | 48.8% | 14.3% | 19% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 50.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $68 | $239.95 · −72% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $72 | $239.95 · −70% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.