Generac Holdings Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Generac's operational inflection is genuine — Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue grew 12.4% and 10.6% YoY respectively, with Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $2.40 and two consecutive large earnings beats (44.8% and 35.3% surprises) — but the stock at $224.94 trades at a 51.0x trailing P/E, a 91.5% premium to the peer median of 26.6x, already discounting much of the data-center-driven recovery.
FY2025 remains a weak baseline with operating margin of just 6.9% and EPS down 50.1% YoY, while insiders have been net sellers ($21.96M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions). The data center and C&I momentum is credible and the technical picture is strong (price above both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, MACD histogram positive at 2.68), but the valuation premium leaves little room for execution missteps.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 51.0x trailing P/E and 23.4x EV/EBITDA — 91.5% and 50.6% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in data center revenue conversion could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Residential softness persists. News coverage notes residential softness as an ongoing risk; if the C&I/data center boom slows and residential does not recover, the growth narrative breaks.
- Margin pressure from mix and tariffs. News highlights tariff volatility and a shifting sales mix that could pressure margins; FY2025 operating margin was only 6.9% versus 12.5% in FY2024.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 43 dispositions with zero open-market acquisitions, netting -$110,654 shares and -$21.96M in value, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · peer comparison. Orin's read on GNRC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.7% over twelve months, from $190.41 on 27 Oct 2025 to $193.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $295.54 on 22 Jun 2026; the last close is 34.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.0M, on 17 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GNRC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $710.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $654.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $498.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $453.7M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $280.2M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $246.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $219.1M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $213.0M | 0.0% |
111 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 146 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$22.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GNRC
Orin answers questions about GNRC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 43.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 39.0×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.9×above usual | 39.0× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.58×above usual | 1.97× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8×above usual | 17.0× | — |
| P/B | 3.9×above usual | 3.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $299 (from $250 to $375) — 55% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$299
$250 – $375 · +55% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 43.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc. | $11B | 43.9× | 19.8× | 39.5% | 5.8% | 11% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $62B | 18.6× | 11.8× | 25.9% | 9.3% | 26% |
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $238B | 25.4× | 25.2× | 20.2% | 23.0% | 83% |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | $827M | 11.8× | 8.1× | 36.4% | 14.9% | 35% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 43.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now43.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $64 a share — 67% below the $193.18 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $64 | 67% below $193.18 |
| Levered | $68 | 65% below $193.18 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.