Alphabet Inc. GOOG
Alphabet trades at a 41% P/E discount and a 42% EV/EBITDA discount to its peer median despite FY2025 revenue accelerating to $402.8B at 15.1% growth and diluted EPS surging 34.5% to $10.81. The $91.4B capex ramp that compressed FCF margin to 18.2% is funding the AI infrastructure behind a $514B cloud backlog and the newly announced Marvell custom-silicon partnership, while smart money scores turned sharply positive to 1.31 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
With the stock holding above its 200-day MA of $333.51 despite pulling below the 50-day at $348.01, the risk/reward is compelling for a megacap growing earnings over 30% while priced like a slow grower.
What could go wrong
- Capex intensity eroding FCF. Capex nearly doubled from $52.5B in FY2024 to $91.4B in FY2025, compressing FCF margin from 20.8% to 18.2% even as revenue grew 15.1%; if AI infrastructure ROI lags, FCF could stagnate further.
- Leverage rising fast. Total debt more than doubled from $25.5B in FY2024 to $59.3B in FY2025 to help fund the capex surge, increasing balance-sheet risk if cloud revenue growth disappoints.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders recorded 126 dispositions versus 76 acquisitions for net share sales of 2.53M, though the most recent 2026-08-25 transactions appear to be routine RSU conversions.
- Near-term technical weakness. Stock trades below its 50-day MA of $348.01 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.22 and RSI of 48.0, suggesting momentum has not yet reversed.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics. Orin's read on GOOG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GOOG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $108.5B | 2.3% of fund |
| State Street | $67.5B | 2.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $48.4B | 2.7% of fund |
| Fmr | $43.1B | 1.9% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $40.4B | 2.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $27.8B | 1.3% of fund |
245 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 252 Form 4 filings, net −$26.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GOOG
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.6× | 23.9× | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7× | 18.0× | — |
| P/S | 9.12× | 6.66× | — |
| P/B | 6.4× | 7.2× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.43σ from its own mean).
21.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $73.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$432
$350 – $515 · +29% against today's price
- 69 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGAlphabet Inc. | $4.07T | 16.6× | 12.7× | 60.9% | 54.8% | 51% |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $4.95T | 38.5× | 29.6× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.69T | 44.0× | 33.0× | 67.7% | 42.9% | 44% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $419B | 31.7× | 22.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $41B | 43.4× | 23.4× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $55B | 29.5× | 22.1× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | $1.90T | 27.7× | 18.6× | 81.7% | 29.8% | 30% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.72T | 27.8× | 18.4× | 67.9% | 40.3% | 33% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.47T | 28.4× | 23.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.32T | 29.0× | 19.2× | 64.2% | 50.4% | 39% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 43.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $131 | $356.71 · −63% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $170 | $356.71 · −52% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.