Genuine Parts Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
GPC's Q3 2026 EPS of $2.07 beat the $2.04 consensus, and H1 2026 revenue grew 6.0–6.8% YoY, confirming the business is recovering from FY2025's 92.7% net income collapse.
However, management narrowed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.50–$7.75 from $7.50–$8.00, trimming the top end and signaling the rebound remains uneven. With total debt of $8.27B as of FY2025—up sharply from $5.74B in FY2024—and an EV/EBITDA of 32.6x that sits 89% above the peer median of 17.2x, the balance sheet and valuation are still healing. The depressed P/S of 0.72 versus a peer median of 3.18 offers value optionality if earnings normalize, but the stock at $130.18 just below its 50-day MA of $132.04 reflects a market in wait-and-see mode. Holding until Q4 2026 confirms the full-year EPS trajectory and debt reduction is the disciplined call.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt surged to $8.27B in FY2025 from $5.74B in FY2024, while stockholders' equity was roughly flat at $4.42B, materially increasing leverage at a time when operating margins remain compressed at 5.0% versus 7.6% in FY2023.
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 gross margin fell to 34.6% from 36.3% in FY2024, and operating margin dropped to 5.0% from 6.1%. If gross margin compression persists, the guided $7.50–$7.75 EPS range could be at risk.
- Guidance trim signals fragility. Management narrowed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.50–$7.75 from $7.50–$8.00, cutting the top end. A further reduction would undermine confidence in the earnings recovery.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score is negligible at 0.01 as of Q2 2026, with fund count declining from 61 to 59 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting institutional conviction is weak.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · news, 20 Oct · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on GPC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 7.3% over twelve months, from $131.42 on 27 Oct 2025 to $121.80 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $149.26 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 18.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.1M, on 2 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GPC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $908.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $730.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $458.4M | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $431.1M | 0.6% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $367.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $348.9M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $315.1M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $313.5M | 0.9% |
95 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 142 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GPC
Orin answers questions about GPC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 468× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 468× | — | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.66×below usual | 0.84× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.9×above usual | 14.1× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×below usual | 4.4× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 14.8× to 262× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $143 (from $122 to $170) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$143
$122 – $170 · +18% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 468× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (AZO 20.1×, ORLY 28.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $17B | 468× | 30.9× | 36.4% | 0.1% | 1% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $51B | 20.1× | 15.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | n/m |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $73B | 28.3× | 19.6× | 51.6% | 14.3% | n/m |
- AZO, ORLY: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 468× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now468×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $104 a share — 14% below the $120.66 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $104 | 14% below $120.66 |
| Levered | $82 | 32% below $120.66 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.