Global Payments Inc. GPN
Global Payments posted Q2 2026 results (quarter ended 2026-06-30) that showed genuine operational improvement — 4% normalized adjusted net revenue growth, 70 bps of adjusted operating-margin expansion, and 12% adjusted EPS growth to $3.46 — yet management simultaneously lowered full-year revenue and earnings guidance citing Middle East conflict pressure on travel volumes, which tempers enthusiasm. The stock has rallied to $91.74 (as of 2026-08-19), well above the 50-day MA of $78.31 and 200-day MA of $74.71, but FY2025 revenue collapsed 23.75% to $7.7B, total debt stands at $21.9B against $2.0B in free cash flow, and the negative reported PE of -23.52x signals persistent earnings-quality distortions.
Smart money is essentially flat at 0.033 as of Q2 2026, and while insiders are net buyers over 24 months ($22.6M net), recent activity is dominated by option exercises and tax withholding rather than conviction purchases. Hold until the lowered guidance proves conservative or deteriorates further.
What could go wrong
- Guidance deterioration. Management already lowered full-year revenue and earnings outlook in Q2 2026 due to Middle East travel-volume pressure; further cuts would undermine the margin-expansion narrative.
- Leverage and earnings quality. Total debt of $21.9B against FY2025 free cash flow of $2.0B creates a ~10.7x debt-to-FCF ratio, and the negative reported PE of -23.52x indicates accounting distortions that obscure true profitability.
- Revenue decline persistence. FY2025 revenue fell 23.75% to $7.7B from $10.1B in FY2024; if this reflects structural rather than transactional/disposition-driven declines, the growth story is compromised.
- Technical overextension. RSI at 63.18 with the stock at $91.74, well above both the 50-day ($78.31) and 200-day ($74.71) moving averages, leaves limited near-term upside before mean reversion risk increases.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news snippet (MarketBeat, 2026-08-08; Zacks, 2026-08-05) · news snippet (MarketBeat, 2026-08-08) · FMP fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy · FMP fundamentals FY2025 (period ended 2025-12-31). Orin's read on GPN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GPN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $937.0M | 1.2% of fund |
| Ameriprise Financial | $884.0M | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $762.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $718.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Glenview Capital Management | $646.3M | 11.8% of fund |
87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 75 Form 4 filings, net $22.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GPN
Orin answers questions about GPN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5× | 13.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.08× | 3.05× | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | 1.3× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.05σ from its own mean).
-1.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$99
$80 – $125 · +16% against today's price
- 37 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $21B | — | 12.5× | 63.9% | -9.4% | -4% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 26.5× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $17B | 27.5× | 19.1× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $24B | 26.7× | 18.7× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.6× | 12.9× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| PNRPentair plc | $8B | 13.2× | 10.9× | 41.3% | 16.2% | 17% |
| RBARB Global, Inc. | $15B | 35.1× | 13.7× | 42.1% | 10.0% | 8% |
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19B | 18.5× | 12.4× | 51.2% | 20.4% | 17% |
| ULSUL Solutions Inc. | $13B | 26.2× | 13.6× | 50.2% | 16.0% | 38% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $178 | $62.63 · +184% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $149 | $62.63 · +139% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.