Global Payments Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Global Payments remains a transformation story where Worldpay-driven revenue scale has not yet translated into reliable bottom-line leverage.
Q2 2026 revenue (quarter ended 30 Jun) surged 69.7% YoY to $3.32B, but net income was just -$8.7M (EPS $0.05), and Q1 2026 posted a $1.8B net loss (EPS -$7.49), leaving the trailing PE negative at -21.08x. The stock at $82.20 trades at a 61% discount to the peer median on price-to-sales and 27% below on EV/EBITDA, but total debt stands at $21.87B (FY2025) against $2.04B in free cash flow, and smart money interest has declined to a score of 0.02 as of Q2 2026 from 0.04 the prior quarter. Hold until Worldpay integration produces consecutive quarters of positive, growing net income rather than just top-line expansion.
What could go wrong
- Integration drag persists. Q1 2026 net loss of $1.8B and Q2 2026 net income of just -$8.7M suggest acquisition-related charges and integration costs are still overwhelming earnings despite 69.7% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2026.
- Leverage burden. Total debt reached $21.87B as of FY2025, up from $16.82B in FY2024, while free cash flow declined to $2.04B from $2.86B, tightening debt service capacity.
- Institutional interest waning. Smart money score fell to 0.02 as of Q2 2026 from 0.04 in Q1 2026, and fund count dropped from 60 to 59, signaling reduced conviction among sophisticated holders.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 13,144 shares for -$1.08M, with CEO Bready and other executives disposing shares via tax-related transactions, offering no bullish insider signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · results, quarter to 31 Mar · fundamentals, year to 31 Dec 2025 · peer comparison. Orin's read on GPN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 6.2% over twelve months, from $86.79 on 27 Oct 2025 to $81.43 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $94.83 on 13 Aug 2026; the last close is 14.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.5M, on 3 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GPN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $937.0M | 1.2% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $884.0M | 0.2% |
| State Street | $762.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $718.4M | 0.0% |
| Glenview Capital Management | $646.3M | 11.8% |
| Bank of America | $543.9M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $506.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $484.1M | 0.0% |
89 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 75 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GPN
Orin answers questions about GPN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 2.19× its yearly sales — below its usual level (3.05×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.19×below usual | 3.05× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9×below usual | 13.4× | — |
| P/B | 1.0×below usual | 1.3× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 13.3× to 242× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $103 (from $80 to $137) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$103
$80 – $137 · +26% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $25B | lost money | 10.9× | 61.5% | −11.4% | −6% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc. | $29B | 24.3× | 14.1× | 75.2% | 23.7% | 35% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $534B | 33.5× | 24.7× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $48B | 10.6× | 7.3× | 44.5% | 13.8% | 24% |
| VVisa Inc. | $750B | 21.9× | 26.4× | 117.3% | 51.2% | 65% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $124 a share — 50% above the $82.16 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $124 | 50% above $82.16 |
| Levered | $104 | 26% above $82.16 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.