Gates Industrial Corporation plc GTES
GTES trades at a meaningful discount to peers — PE of 19.68x versus a peer median of 27.93x and EV/EBITDA of 12.0x versus 17.13x — while FY2025 results show clear operational improvement: operating margin expanded to 15.3% from 14.1%, free cash flow grew to $405M with an 11.8% FCF margin, and diluted EPS rose 29.7% to $0.96. The Q2 2026 earnings beat and raised FY2026 guidance, driven by broadening industrial demand and accelerating data-center growth, reinforce the margin expansion trajectory, and the stock sits above both its 50-day ($27.24) and 200-day ($24.70) moving averages with neutral RSI of 54.
Heavy net insider selling of $1.57B over 24 months and $2.51B in total debt are real offsets, but the combination of attractive relative valuation, improving profitability, and constructive news flow supports accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $1.57B over the trailing 24 months across 252 transactions, with continued sales into August 2026, could signal that major holders see limited upside or are exiting a sponsor position.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $2.51B against stockholders' equity of $3.33B as of FY2025 leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility if end-market conditions deteriorate.
- Modest top-line growth. FY2025 revenue growth was only 1.03% YoY following a 4.5% decline in FY2024, meaning margin expansion rather than volume is carrying the earnings recovery.
- End-market headwinds. Agriculture weakness and rising costs are explicitly flagged as tempering risks in recent coverage, which could pressure margins if they intensify.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative (as of 2026-08-17) · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024; fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 (period ended 2025-12-31) · fundamentals FY2025 (period ended 2025-12-31). Orin's read on GTES; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GTES filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Capital Management | $2.6M | 0.9% of fund |
1 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 235 Form 4 filings, net −$53.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GTES
Orin answers questions about GTES from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.4× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.91× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | — | — |
5.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$31
$28 – $34 · +21% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.4× | 11.4× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| CSWCSW Industrials, Inc. | $5B | 40.5× | 20.1× | 42.4% | 10.3% | 11% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 27.5× | 16.3× | 35.5% | 7.1% | 12% |
| GATXGATX Corporation | $7B | 18.3× | 17.5× | 46.2% | 17.9% | 13% |
| MIDDThe Middleby Corporation | $5B | — | — | 38.0% | -13.2% | -18% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $3B | 15.2× | 9.7× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 21% |
| NPOEnPro Industries, Inc. | $6B | 146.9× | 34.8× | 42.8% | 3.6% | 3% |
| SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4B | 25.6× | 10.5× | 35.1% | 3.4% | 10% |
| TKRThe Timken Company | $8B | 31.7× | 15.2× | 28.7% | 5.4% | 8% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 33.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.