W.W. Grainger, Inc. GWW
Grainger's H1 2026 results confirm an earnings inflection — Q2 2026 revenue grew 10.3% YoY to $5.02B with EPS of $12.01 beating estimates by 6.3%, and Q1 2026 similarly delivered 10.1% revenue growth with a 14.1% EPS beat — reversing FY2025's 8.6% full-year EPS decline to $35.40. Operating income has rebounded sequentially from $511M in Q3 2025 to $807M in Q2 2026, institutional fund count rose to 61 as of Q2 2026 from 55 in Q4 2025, and Zacks upgraded the stock to Buy.
At 33.4x trailing P/E the stock carries a 12.3% premium to the peer median, but at 3.28x P/S it sits 36% below the peer median, leaving room for multiple expansion as double-digit growth is sustained.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 net margin fell to 9.51% from 11.12% in FY2024 and operating margin compressed to 15.0% from 15.36%, even as revenue kept growing — cost pressure could persist into H2 2026.
- FCF erosion from elevated capex. FY2025 free cash flow declined to $1.33B from $1.57B in FY2024 as capital expenditure rose to $684M from $541M; if capex remains elevated, FCF conversion will stay depressed.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $53.9M in stock across 165 dispositions versus 150 acquisitions; the pattern signals limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Q3 2025 anomaly recurrence. Q3 2025 EPS collapsed to $6.09 with operating income of only $511M versus $678M the prior quarter; if a similar operational disruption recurs, the recovery narrative breaks.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, Q2 2026 (ended 2026-06-30) · earnings_surprises, period ended 2026-08-04 · quarterly_results Q1 2026 and earnings_surprises, period ended 2026-05-07 · derived_metrics, FY2025 eps_growth_yoy -0.0855; fundamentals, FY2025 eps_diluted 35.4. Orin's read on GWW; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GWW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wells Fargo & Company/Mn | $1.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.1B | 0.2% of fund |
104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 315 Form 4 filings, net −$53.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GWW
Orin answers questions about GWW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.6× | 25.8× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2× | 16.9× | — |
| P/S | 3.21× | 2.51× | — |
| P/B | 14.6× | 13.3× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.28σ from its own mean).
18.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1312
$1125 – $1428 · +5% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 26 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $60B | 32.6× | 21.2× | 39.4% | 9.9% | 49% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $57B | 36.1× | 24.2× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | $45B | 37.8× | 20.5× | 24.3% | 5.5% | 9% |
| FASTFastenal Company | $58B | 43.0× | 29.9× | 44.7% | 15.5% | 34% |
| OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation | $25B | 17.1× | 13.8× | 30.2% | 10.2% | -27% |
| PAYXPaychex, Inc. | $36B | 20.1× | 13.1× | 74.4% | 27.4% | 47% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $58B | 23.3× | 18.9× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| ROKRockwell Automation, Inc. | $48B | 40.5× | 28.9× | 54.5% | 13.4% | 33% |
| ROPRoper Technologies, Inc. | $37B | 15.1× | 10.6× | 69.5% | 30.2% | 13% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $497 | $1320.93 · −62% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $667 | $1320.93 · −49% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.