Halliburton Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Halliburton remains a hold after Q3 2026 results showed adjusted EPS of $0.60 (beating the $0.584 estimate by 2.7%) but GAAP EPS of $0.50, a sequential decline from Q2 2026's $0.64.
The recovery from the Q3 2025 trough (EPS $0.02) is real but uneven — Q1 and Q2 2026 showed improving sequential EPS of $0.55 and $0.64 before this quarter's pullback. The stock at $32.98 trades at a P/E of 17.26 and EV/EBITDA of 8.10, discounts of 16.6% and 28.3% to peer medians, limiting downside, but the price sits below both the 50-day ($34.13) and 200-day ($35.69) moving averages and insiders have sold a net $42.6M over 24 months with no meaningful buying. FY2025 operating margin compression to 10.2% from 16.7% in FY2024 has not yet been fully reversed, and the Q3 sequential earnings decline suggests the margin recovery story needs another quarter of proof.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 operating margin fell to 10.2% from 16.7% in FY2024; if Q3 2026's sequential EPS decline from $0.64 to $0.50 GAAP persists, the margin recovery thesis weakens.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders sold a net 1.19M shares worth $42.6M over 24 months, including CEO Jeffrey Miller's 124,483-share sale at $35.00 in August 2026 and the CFO's sales in June and August 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $32.98 trades below both the 50-day MA ($34.13) and 200-day MA ($35.69); a failure to reclaim these levels could signal further downside.
- Middle East disruption. Q3 2026 earnings previews flagged Middle East disruptions and rising costs as potential offsets to stronger fracturing demand and software sales.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news and earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on HAL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 32.9% over twelve months, from $26.80 on 27 Oct 2025 to $35.62 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $42.98 on 19 May 2026; the last close is 17.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 58.8M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HAL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.8B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $760.4M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $565.5M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $403.0M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $360.6M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $344.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $337.5M | 0.1% |
117 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 100 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$42.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HAL
Orin answers questions about HAL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 14.0×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.9×above usual | 14.0× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.32×near usual | 1.33× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9×above usual | 7.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.7×below usual | 3.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $43.10 (from $37 to $51) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$43.10
$37 – $51 · +21% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (BKR 20.1×, SLB 26.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALHalliburton Company | $30B | 14.9× | 8.9× | 15.0% | 8.9% | 18% |
| BKRBaker Hughes Company | $59B | 20.1× | 14.6× | 23.5% | 10.1% | 14% |
| SLBSLB N.V. | $80B | 26.0× | 12.4× | 16.3% | 8.3% | 11% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $54 a share — 54% above the $35.37 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $54 | 54% above $35.37 |
| Levered | $46 | 30% above $35.37 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.