Hasbro, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Hasbro's Q3 FY2026 print confirms the operating turnaround is real—quarterly operating income of $517.3M on $1.451B revenue is the strongest in the available data, and the company has beaten consensus EPS in four consecutive reported quarters.
But at $98.49 the stock trades at a 91.7% PE premium to the Leisure peer median with an RSI near 70, while insiders remain net sellers ($53.3M over 24 months) and smart money conviction is low (score 0.009 as of the Q2 2026 13F). The turnaround thesis is validated but largely priced in; hold for a better entry or evidence that operating income sustains at the Q3 level.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. PE of 17.49 sits 91.7% above the Leisure peer median of 9.13, leaving limited room for multiple expansion if growth disappoints.
- Extended technicals. RSI of 69.998 approaches overbought territory with the stock above both the 50-day ($92.46) and 200-day ($91.07) moving averages, increasing vulnerability to profit-taking.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the 24-month window insiders disposed 537,212 shares for net proceeds of $53.3M with zero open-market acquisitions, including August 2026 sales by the President of WOTC at $94.63–$96.29.
- Balance sheet leverage. FY2025 total debt of $3.40B against equity of just $538.5M constrains financial flexibility despite strong free cash flow of $829.9M.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 27 Sep · earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on HAS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 51.5% over twelve months, from $78.09 on 27 Oct 2025 to $118.33 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. That is its highest close in that time.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.1M, on 21 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HAS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $744.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $586.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $492.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $344.7M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $310.4M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $292.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $289.3M | 0.0% |
| Viking Global Investors | $256.6M | 0.7% |
| Invesco | $253.8M | 0.0% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 123 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$53.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HAS
Orin answers questions about HAS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 31.9×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.5×below usual | 31.9× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 3.22×above usual | 1.88× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0×above usual | 11.0× | — |
| P/B | 17.8× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 2.9× to 21.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $111 (from $95 to $125) — 7% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$111
$95 – $125 · −7% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (NCLH 9.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HASHasbro, Inc. | $17B | 17.5× | 13.0× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 135% |
| NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $7B | 9.4× | 8.0× | 42.5% | 7.5% | 32% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $96 a share — 19% below the $118.67 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $96 | 19% below $118.67 |
| Levered | $85 | 29% below $118.67 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.