The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. HIG
HIG trades at a 36.8% P/E discount to the peer median of 12.82 despite FY2025 diluted EPS of $13.32 up 28.7% YoY and a 20.36% FCF margin, with RSI at 26.27 signaling an oversold entry after the pullback below both the 50-day ($138.33) and 200-day ($136.16) moving averages. Q2 2026 net income of $1.298B beat consensus EPS by 8.2%, and the smart-money score turned slightly positive at 0.0063 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, though the sharp sequential decline in Q2 gross profit to $2.513B from $3.228B in Q1 and revenue growth deceleration to 3.95% YoY warrant close monitoring of catastrophe loss trends.
What could go wrong
- Catastrophe-driven margin compression. Q2 2026 gross profit fell to $2.513B from $3.228B in Q1 2026, a sequential drop that suggests elevated catastrophe or claims activity; sustained margin pressure would undermine the earnings growth thesis.
- Technical downtrend. Price at $126.59 is below both the 50-day ($138.33) and 200-day ($136.16) moving averages with a bearish MACD histogram of -1.00 and RSI at 26.27, indicating a downtrend that could persist despite oversold conditions.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue growth slowed to 3.95% YoY from 7-8% in prior quarters; if pricing softness or competitive pressure continues, top-line momentum could falter further.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $77.3M over 24 months with 91 sales versus 75 acquisitions, including CEO Swift's disposition of 35,088 shares on 2026-08-07, signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-09-23 · quarterly_results Q2 2026 and earnings_surprises. Orin's read on HIG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All HIG filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 11 Aug | Priscilla Almodovar was elected to The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 23 Jul | Net income available to common stockholders was $1.29 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 31% from $990 million in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 15 Jul | The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 3 Jun | The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 21 May | The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $751.0M | 0.1% of fund |
98 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 166 Form 4 filings, net −$77.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HIG
Orin answers questions about HIG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1× | 10.2× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9× | 8.1× | — |
| P/S | 1.19× | 1.13× | — |
| P/B | 1.8× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.01σ from its own mean).
-9.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$151
$146 – $154 · +22% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $34B | 8.1× | 7.9× | 43.9% | 15.0% | 23% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33B | 7.3× | 6.5× | 46.2% | 24.4% | 20% |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $40B | 13.6× | 6.3× | 38.1% | 11.1% | 7% |
| BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. | $1.09T | 12.7× | 15.4× | 23.5% | 22.3% | 12% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 36.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $267 | $130.38 · +105% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $549 | $130.38 · +321% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.