HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
HIVE Digital Technologies remains a sell as the AI/HPC pivot has destroyed profitability with no sign of stabilization.
FY2026 (ended March 2026) produced a gross loss of $62.5M on $297.8M revenue with net income of -$148.4M, and Q1 FY2027 (ended June 2026) showed no improvement with gross profit still negative at -$28.7M and a net loss of $139.3M. Despite revenue growth and recent BuzzHPC partnership announcements, the company is burning $106.9M in annual free cash flow on $168.8M of capex with no path to positive gross margins visible in the most recent quarterly data. The stock at $1.975 trades well below both its 50-day MA of $2.85 and 200-day MA of $2.88, and insider net selling of 994,200 shares over 24 months underscores concern.
What could go wrong
- AI/HPC revenue ramp. BuzzHPC partnerships with ProCogia and board appointments could eventually translate into meaningful high-margin hosting revenue, shifting the gross margin profile from the current -0.21 level.
- Oversold technical bounce. RSI at 22.2 is deeply oversold; a short-term mechanical rally could occur independent of fundamentals.
- Cryptocurrency price recovery. As a miner still selling digital currencies, a rebound in crypto prices could restore mining-segment gross profitability quickly.
- Dilution risk. With negative free cash flow of $106.9M and total debt of $71.1M, the company may need equity issuance, further pressuring existing shareholders.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 31 Mar · results, quarter to 30 Jun · technicals, 20 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on HIVE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 65.8% over twelve months, from $5.90 on 27 Oct 2025 to $2.02 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $5.90 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 65.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 111.4M, on 18 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HIVE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $62.0M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $36.6M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $36.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $17.4M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $15.6M | 0.0% |
| Bank of Montreal | $12.1M | 0.0% |
| Tidal Investments | $11.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $9.8M | 0.0% |
| Nomura Holdings | $6.4M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.7M | 0.0% |
38 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 70 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HIVE
Orin answers questions about HIVE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 1.68× its yearly sales — below its usual level (2.56×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 11.0× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 1.68×below usual | 2.56× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 80.6× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 3.3× to 17.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 0.4× to 2.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $7 (from $5.50 to $8) — 247% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$7
$5.50 – $8 · +247% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. None of the 8 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIVEHIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. | $554M | lost money | 80.6× | −32.5% | −98.0% | −60% |
| APLDApplied Digital Corp. | $6B | lost money | n/m | 20.2% | −54.2% | −28% |
| BTBTBit Digital, Inc. | $330M | lost money | n/m | 32.1% | −237.2% | −47% |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group | $2B | lost money | n/m | 0.5% | −55.1% | −55% |
| CIFRCipher Mining Inc. | $4B | lost money | n/m | −20.0% | −585.8% | −156% |
| CLSKCleanSpark, Inc. | $2B | lost money | n/m | −5.3% | −146.9% | −75% |
| RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc. | $6B | lost money | n/m | −5.8% | −210.8% | −59% |
| WULFTeraWulf Inc. | $6B | lost money | n/m | 69.3% | below −1,000% | n/m |
| WYFIWhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares | $427M | lost money | n/m | 61.9% | −44.7% | −9% |
- APLD, BTBT, BTDR, CIFR, CLSK, RIOT, WULF, WYFI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- WULF: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- APLD, BTBT, BTDR, CIFR, CLSK, RIOT, WULF, WYFI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- WULF: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $12 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.