Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT
Hilton's asset-light franchise model keeps executing — Q2 2026 revenue grew 6.5% YoY to $3.34B with EPS of $2.10 versus $1.84 a year earlier, and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight straight quarters — but the stock at $307.22 trades at 44.65x trailing earnings, a 56% premium to the peer median of 28.69x, while sitting below both its 50-day ($318.45) and 200-day ($314.62) moving averages. FY2025 net income declined 5.1% to $1.46B even as revenue rose 7.7% to $12.04B, with total debt climbing to $13.09B and stockholders' equity at -$5.39B, signaling rising interest costs that compress the bottom line.
With 24-month insider net selling of $32.7M and a smart money score of -0.042 as of Q2 2026, the premium valuation lacks validation from sophisticated buyers, keeping this a hold until either the multiple compresses toward peers or earnings growth clearly reaccelerates.
What could go wrong
- Premium valuation. At 44.65x P/E versus a peer median of 28.69x (a 56% premium) and 26.56x EV/EBITDA versus 18.39x, any earnings miss or guidance cut could trigger sharp multiple compression.
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt reached $13.09B at FY2025 end with stockholders' equity at -$5.39B; rising interest costs already contributed to a 5.1% net income decline despite 7.7% revenue growth.
- Insider selling. 24-month insider net selling of $32.7M across 102 transactions with no cluster buys; recent September 2026 sales by Director Carr and officer Fuentes continue the disposition pattern.
- Travel demand cyclicality. As a consumer cyclical lodging name, any macro slowdown or travel demand softening could pressure RevPAR growth, which underpins the fee-driven revenue model.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 · earnings_surprises, all eight listed quarters show positive surprise_pct · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-09-23. Orin's read on HLT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All HLT filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 28 Jul | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 28 Jul | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 18 May | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 11 May | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | read |
| 13G | 6 May | — | on file |
| 8-K | 5 May | Christopher W. Silcock, President, Global Brands & Commercial Services, will retire in Q1 2027, triggering Item 5.02. Effective later in 2026, Laura Fuentes becomes Chief Brand… | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 28 Apr | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $6.3B | 1.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
118 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 102 Form 4 filings, net −$32.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HLT
Orin answers questions about HLT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.4× | 41.8× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9× | 28.7× | — |
| P/S | 5.63× | 5.47× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.26σ from its own mean).
15.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$348
$316 – $379 · +12% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $70B | 45.4× | 26.9× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $90B | 34.3× | 28.4× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $47B | 18.3× | 14.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | -90% |
| FFord Motor Company | $50B | — | — | 10.8% | -3.9% | -19% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $73B | 40.3× | 13.7× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $64B | 14.7× | 12.0× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | $76B | 28.3× | 18.5× | 29.9% | 10.8% | 42% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 45.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $137 | $338.20 · −59% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $223 | $338.20 · −34% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.