Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Hilton continues to execute on its asset-light franchise model — Q2 2026 revenue grew 6.5% YoY to $3.34B with net income of $482M (up from $440M in Q2 2025), and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters — but the stock at $320.53 trades at 46.6x trailing earnings, a 72% premium to the peer median of 27.1x, and 27.5x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.0x.
FY2025 net income declined 5.1% to $1.46B even as revenue rose 7.7% to $12.04B, with total debt at $13.09B and stockholders' equity at -$5.39B. Technicals have improved modestly — price is now above both the 50-day ($317.23) and 200-day ($316.56) moving averages with a bullish MACD histogram of 1.56 — but 24-month insider net selling of $41.9M and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.042 as of Q2 2026 offer no validation from sophisticated buyers. With Q3 2026 earnings due October 27, the extreme valuation premium warrants waiting for evidence that earnings growth reaccelerates rather than continuing to compress.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 46.6x PE (72% above peer median of 27.1x) and 27.5x EV/EBITDA (97% above peer median), any disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt of $13.09B against negative stockholders' equity of -$5.39B as of FY2025 leaves the balance sheet vulnerable to rising interest costs, which already contributed to a 5.1% net income decline in FY2025.
- Decelerating revenue growth. Revenue growth slowed from 9.2% in FY2024 to 7.7% in FY2025, and Q2 2026 YoY growth of 6.5% is the slowest in the available quarterly series.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 133,922 shares worth $41.9M with zero open-market acquisitions, suggesting limited insider conviction at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on HLT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 29.5% over twelve months, from $266.22 on 27 Oct 2025 to $344.65 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $362.25 on 21 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.4M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HLT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $3.7B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.9B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.5B | 0.1% |
121 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 110 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$41.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HLT
Orin answers questions about HLT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 46.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 41.9×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 46.1×above usual | 41.9× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 6.11×above usual | 5.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.6×below usual | 27.9× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $353 (from $316 to $384) — 2% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$353
$316 – $384 · +2% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 46.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (MAR 40.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $78B | 46.1× | 24.6× | 44.6% | 13.4% | n/m |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $102B | 40.6× | 23.7× | 20.2% | 9.6% | n/m |
- HLT, MAR: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 46.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now46.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $113 a share — 67% below the $342.20 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $113 | 67% below $342.20 |
| Levered | $185 | 46% below $342.20 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.