HOODNasdaq·Financial - Capital Markets

Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD

Market cap $108.2BP/E 53.1× trailingGross margin 81.5%Reports Wed 4 Nov, after the close

$120.35

−2.35 (−1.92%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $63.52 – $153.86

Watch

Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 16 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Get emailed if this changes

Robinhood's FY2025 results are undeniably strong — revenue surged 51.5% to $4.47B with $1.88B net income and $1.58B free cash flow, marking a dramatic turnaround from the $541M loss in FY2023. However, the valuation premium remains extreme at 41.4x trailing PE versus a peer median of 17.4x and 20.7x PS versus 3.7x, while total debt doubled to $15.4B and insiders have sold a net $1.98B over 24 months.

The stock has recovered to $95.56 from prior levels but still trades below its 50-day MA, and the expansion into venture-fund products adds unproven risk to an already richly priced equity.

What could go wrong

Extreme valuation premium. PE of 41.4x is 138% above peer median (17.4x); PS of 20.7x is 456% above peer median (3.7x); EV/EBITDA of 73.9x is 454% above median (13.3x). Any growth deceleration could trigger sharp de-rating.
Debt expansion. Total debt doubled from $7.46B in FY2024 to $15.4B in FY2025, against stockholders' equity of $9.15B, creating meaningful leverage risk if revenue growth slows.
Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 18.8M shares worth $1.98B across 611 transactions (460 dispositions vs 151 acquisitions), signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
Revenue concentration in speculative trading. Business model remains heavily reliant on options, crypto, and event-contract trading volumes, which are cyclical and sensitive to retail sentiment shifts.

What would change my mind

Revenue growth reacceleration. FY2026 quarterly revenue growth exceeds 30% YoY with stable or expanding marginsbullish

Valuation compression toward peers. PE multiple contracts toward 25x or peer median PE rises, narrowing the 138% premiumbullish

Crypto/options volume decline. Quarterly transaction revenue declines materially as retail risk appetite wanesbearish

Debt servicing concerns. Interest coverage deteriorates or credit metrics weaken given $15.4B debt load against $9.15B equitybearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on HOOD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All HOOD filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
10-Q	29 Jul	Total net revenues increased 32% year-over-year to $1,308 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, and 25% year-over-year to $2,375 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026.	read
8-K	29 Jul	Robinhood Markets, Inc. reported record second quarter 2026 revenues of $1.31 billion, a 32% increase year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share rose 48% to $0.62. Net deposits…	read
8-K	26 Jun	Dara Bazzano was appointed principal accounting officer of Robinhood Markets, Inc.	read
8-K	25 Jun	Robinhood Markets, Inc. closed a $2.2 billion private offering of 0.00% convertible senior notes due October 1, 2029, on June 25, 2026. The notes are senior unsecured obligations…	read
8-K	23 Jun	Robinhood Markets, Inc. announced on June 22, 2026, the commencement and pricing of a private offering of $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 0.00% convertible senior notes…	read
8-K	16 Jun	Robinhood Markets, Inc. announced a workforce reduction affecting approximately 10% of its full-time employees on June 16, 2026, triggering Item 2.05 of Form 8-K. The company…	read
8-K	3 Jun	Robinhood Markets, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 2, 2026, re-electing ten directors, approving executive compensation on an advisory basis, and…	read
13G	18 May	—	on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$5.2B	0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$3.7B	0.2% of fund
State Street	$3.5B	0.1% of fund
Fmr	$3.0B	0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$2.3B	0.1% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &	$1.6B	0.1% of fund

116 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 673 Form 4 filings, net −$2.0B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 33 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about HOOD

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about HOOD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	53.1×	—	21.6×
EV/EBITDA	54.1×	—	—
P/S	22.37×	8.45×	—
P/B	11.6×	2.1×	—

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.67σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

24.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

26 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$134

$100 – $170 · +12% against today's price

How they rate it

20 buy or overweight
4 hold
2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 15.4× of 6 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.	$110B	53.1×	54.1×	81.5%	42.0%	23%
BACBank of America Corporation	$397B	12.7×	24.1×	59.3%	17.2%	11%
CBChubb Limited	$129B	11.8×	11.9×	39.6%	18.1%	15%
COFCapital One Financial Corporation	$120B	12.1×	5.0×	66.2%	13.4%	9%
IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.	$158B	36.2×	14.2×	93.3%	10.1%	21%
KKRKKR & Co. Inc.	$87B	28.9×	13.1×	22.5%	15.0%	10%
SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation	$173B	18.0×	11.0×	86.7%	33.6%	20%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 245.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY24 23.3×FY25 53.3×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services

FY14 29.6×FY26 23.9×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$-49	$88.63 · −155%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$-19	$88.63 · −121%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $120.35

52-week range$64 – $154

Analyst targets$100 – $170

Standard DCF$-49 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $88.63

Levered DCF$-19 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $88.63

At own 5y-median P/E (-4×)$-10

At 5y P/E range (-21–53×)$-48 – $123

At sector P/E (22×)$50

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.