Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
HPE's Q3 FY2026 results (ended 31 Jul) confirm a sharp profitability recovery from the FY2025 trough, with revenue of $12.213B growing 32.7% YoY and EPS of $1.11 beating estimates of $0.932 by 19.1%.
However, the stock has climbed more than 160% over the last 12 months to a record close of $69.33 with RSI at 69.5, pricing in much of the AI-infrastructure-driven recovery. While HPE trades at a 32.7% PE discount to its peer median of 51.26x and smart-money accumulation has risen to 0.10 across 70 funds as of Q2 2026, the FY2025 balance sheet carries $24.077B in total debt against net income of just $57M, and CEO Antonio Neri sold 250,000 shares at $60.44 on 11 Sep. The fundamental turnaround is real but the risk/reward at these levels is balanced.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 69.5 with the stock at a record close of $69.33, well above the 50-day MA of $55.73 and 200-day MA of $36.90, leaves the stock vulnerable to a pullback on any disappointment.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $24.077B as of FY2025 (ended 31 Oct 2025) against total stockholders' equity of $24.688B and near-zero net income of $57M raises concern about debt service capacity if AI demand falters.
- Insider selling. CEO Antonio Neri sold 250,000 shares at $60.44 on 11 Sep, and EVP Rami Rahim sold shares at $61.42 on 29 Sep, signaling potential concern at elevated valuations.
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin compressed to 28.8% from 31.8% in FY2024 and 34.1% in FY2023, reflecting integration costs that must reverse to justify current multiples.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results and earnings vs estimates · news, 2 Oct · technicals, 2 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on HPE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 152% over twelve months, from $24.18 on 27 Oct 2025 to $60.84 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $73.46 on 9 Oct 2026; the last close is 17.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 153.2M, on 2 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All HPE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.7B | 0.3% |
| Bank of America | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Elliott Investment Management | $1.5B | 6.4% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $1.1B | 0.1% |
126 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 338 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$88.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HPE
Orin answers questions about HPE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 30.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 9.9×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.2×above usual | 9.9× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 1.93×above usual | 0.70× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1×above usual | 6.0× | — |
| P/B | 3.1×above usual | 1.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $70 (from $57 to $86) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$70
$57 – $86 · +15% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 30.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $81B | 30.2× | 15.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $236B | 58.3× | 45.9× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| DELLDell Technologies Inc. | $319B | 28.7× | 18.6× | 19.8% | 7.5% | n/m |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $237B | 21.0× | 16.6× | 58.0% | 16.0% | 33% |
| NTAPNetApp, Inc. | $45B | 31.7× | 21.3× | 70.6% | 19.2% | 114% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $23B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
- DELL: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 30.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now30.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $8 a share — 87% below the $60.89 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $8 | 87% below $60.89 |
| Levered | $14 | 77% below $60.89 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.