Hormel Foods Corporation HRL
Hormel Foods has absorbed significant punishment — the stock fell roughly 10% on August 27 after Q3 2026 results and now trades at $21.57 with an RSI of 25.7, deeply oversold. Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.37 beat the $0.36 consensus and rose 6% YoY, signaling early margin expansion, but organic sales declined 2% and management cut the FY2026 revenue outlook amid lower turkey and nut pricing.
The P/E of 33.8x remains 88% above the peer median of 17.9x, yet HRL now trades below peers on price-to-sales (0.96x vs 1.54x median) and EV/EBITDA (12.5x vs 13.8x median), while FCF expected above $700M for FY2026 and a ~5% dividend yield provide downside support. The prior sell call has largely played out; hold for evidence of stabilized revenue before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Revenue trajectory. Organic sales declined 2% in Q3 2026 and management lowered the FY2026 revenue outlook; persistent consumer caution and food inflation could extend top-line weakness.
- Valuation de-risk incomplete. At a P/E of 33.77 versus the peer median of 17.95, HRL remains expensive on earnings; if margins fail to recover toward FY2024's 8.96% operating margin, further de-rating is possible.
- Commodity pricing pressure. Barron's cited lower prices for turkey and nuts as drivers of the Q3 sales miss and guidance cut; category-level pricing weakness could persist into FY2027.
- Technical downtrend intact. Price sits below the 50-day MA of $24.75 and the 200-day MA of $23.45 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.31; oversold conditions can persist in ongoing downtrends.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat / Zacks, Q3 2026 earnings (2026-08-27) · Zacks / Barrons, Q3 2026 earnings (2026-08-27) · Barrons, 2026-08-27 · Peer relative composite. Orin's read on HRL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All HRL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $642.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $481.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $376.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $367.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $305.9M | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $202.8M | 0.0% of fund |
73 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 72 Form 4 filings, net $82.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HRL
Orin answers questions about HRL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.6× | 25.3× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9× | 15.2× | — |
| P/S | 0.90× | 1.47× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 2.3× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+3.12σ from its own mean).
8.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$25
$23 – $26 · +23% against today's price
- 6 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 7 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 31.6× | 14.9× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| BF-BBrown-Forman Corporation | $12B | 17.1× | 13.5× | 60.7% | 18.4% | 18% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | — | — | 23.9% | -17.0% | -24% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $10B | 17.4× | 16.9× | 42.3% | 8.7% | -1894% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.2× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $13B | 56.9× | 14.9× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 83.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $30 | $24.39 · +24% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $28 | $24.39 · +16% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.