Orin
HSICNasdaq·Medical - Distribution

Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC

Market cap $9.7BP/E 24.6× trailingGross margin 30.3%Reports Tue 3 Nov, before the open
$85.26
+0.21 (+0.25%)live 09:45 ET
52-wk $61.95 – $92.18
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 19 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Henry Schein's operational recovery is genuine—FY2025 revenue grew 4.03% to $13.18B with EPS up 7.21% to $3.27, and management just raised the 2026 outlook on Q2 margin momentum—but the stock at $89.23 trades at a 25.79x P/E and 13.41x EV/EBITDA, a 69–72% premium to peer DVA, pricing in substantial improvement already. Total debt has tripled from $1.22B in FY2021 to $3.69B in FY2025 while operating margin remains compressed at 5.75% versus 6.89% five years ago, and EPS is still 27% below the FY2021 peak of $4.45.

With smart money only marginally positive (score 0.0078 as of 2026-06-30) and insider activity dominated by dispositions, the risk/reward at current levels is balanced; hold for evidence that margin expansion and deleveraging can justify the premium.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation premium unsustainable. P/E of 25.79x and EV/EBITDA of 13.41x represent roughly 69% and 72% premiums to peer DVA (15.30x and 7.79x); any disappointment in the raised 2026 outlook could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Leverage burden. Total debt rose to $3.687B in FY2025 from $2.87B in FY2024 and $1.217B in FY2021, while stockholders' equity declined to $3.245B, limiting financial flexibility.
  • Margin compression persists. Operating margin has been flat at 5.75% for two consecutive years versus 6.89% in FY2021 and 7.42% in FY2022; if the raised guidance does not translate into operating leverage, the thesis weakens.
  • Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders recorded 53 dispositions versus 32 acquisitions, with multiple executives selling at approximately $74.61 in March 2026.

What would change my mind

Operating margin expansion confirmed. Next quarterly report shows operating margin above 6.0% with year-over-year improvement, validating the raised 2026 outlookbullish
Debt reduction. Total debt declines below $3.4B in the next reported quarter, indicating active deleveragingbullish
Guidance cut or margin miss. Q3 2026 results show operating margin below 5.75% or management lowers the 2026 outlookbearish
Valuation re-rating vs peer. EV/EBITDA premium to DVA widens beyond 80% without commensurate earnings growth accelerationbearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative · FMP FY2025 and FY2021 annuals · derived_metrics. Orin's read on HSIC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & L.P$1.3B22.9% of fund
Fmr$630.9M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$530.1M0.0% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$366.4M0.0% of fund
State Street$359.6M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$345.2M0.0% of fund

72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 87 Form 4 filings, net $4.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about HSIC

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E24.6×22.9×26.4×
EV/EBITDA12.9×12.5×
P/S0.71×0.80×
P/B3.1×2.8×

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.31σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

5.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

34 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$92

$64$110 · +8% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 17 buy or overweight
  • 14 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 15.7× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
HSICHenry Schein, Inc.$10B24.6×12.9×30.3%3.0%12%
DVADaVita Inc.$12B15.7×7.9×31.0%6.0%-124%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 56.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 19.3×FY25 23.1×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$82$80.12 · +2%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$69$80.12 · −14%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $85.26
52-week range$62 – $92
Analyst targets$64 – $110
Standard DCF$82 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $80.12
Levered DCF$69 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $80.12
At own 5y-median P/E (23×)$79
At 5y P/E range (17–24×)$60 – $82
At sector P/E (26×)$91

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.