Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Host Hotels & Resorts screens cheap at a P/E of 16.31 and EV/EBITDA of 9.50 — roughly 39% and 27% below peer medians — and has beaten EPS estimates in every recent quarter, including Q1 2026 actual EPS of $0.71 versus an estimated $0.36.
However, revenue growth is decelerating sharply (Q2 2026 YoY revenue growth of 3.4% versus 8.2% in the year-ago quarter), operating margin has compressed from 15.6% in FY2023 to 13.6% in FY2025, and FCF fell from $950M in FY2024 to $858M in FY2025 as capex climbed to $644M. With RSI above 70 and net insider selling of 212,973 shares over the trailing 24 months, the near-term setup is balanced enough to warrant patience until Q3 2026 results clarify whether growth stabilizes or continues to moderate.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin declined from 15.6% in FY2023 to 13.6% in FY2025; if cost pressures or RevPAR softness continue, FCF coverage of the dividend could deteriorate further.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 YoY revenue growth of 3.4% and Q1 2026 of 3.2% are well below the 8.2% growth seen in Q2 2025, suggesting lodging demand is normalizing.
- Insider selling signal. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 212,973 shares for $4.56M, including August 2026 sales by the EVP of Development and EVP/Chief Investment Officer.
- Overbought technicals. RSI-14 at 70.06 with the stock at $23.97 above both the 50-day MA ($22.53) and 200-day MA ($21.59) increases the risk of a near-term pullback.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · quarterly results · fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on HST; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 51.6% over twelve months, from $16.64 on 27 Oct 2025 to $25.22 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $25.54 on 29 Jul 2026; the last close is 1.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 25.7M, on 6 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $511.6M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $445.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $316.0M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $315.9M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $295.8M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $269.6M | 0.0% |
85 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 99 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$4.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HST
Orin answers questions about HST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 17.9×); the typical Real Estate company on the NASDAQ is at 37.0×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.4×near usual | 17.9× | 37.0× |
| P/S | 2.71×above usual | 2.34× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2×near usual | 10.4× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $25.57 (from $23 to $27) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$25.57
$23 – $27 · +1% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $17B | 18.4× | 10.2× | n/a | 15.0% | 14% |
| BXPBXP, Inc. | $10B | 32.7× | 13.7× | n/a | 8.4% | 6% |
| CPTCamden Property Trust | $10B | 9.7× | 5.5× | n/a | 94.9% | 27% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | lost money | — | n/a | −47.8% | −6% |
| UDRUDR, Inc. | $11B | 22.5× | 13.2× | n/a | 30.4% | 16% |
- REXR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- HST, BXP, CPT, REXR, UDR: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- HST: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.0× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.0×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $41 a share — 63% above the $24.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $41 | 63% above $24.95 |
| Levered | $35 | 40% above $24.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.