The Hershey Company HSY
Hershey's earnings recovery from the FY2025 cocoa-cost trough is materializing — Q2 2026 EPS of $2.26 versus $0.31 a year prior, after FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 33.3% from 47.3% in FY2024, reflects the margin rebound as cocoa prices decline. However, the stock at $176 sits below both its 50-day ($179.14) and 200-day ($192.50) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, trades at a P/S 36.8% above the peer median, and faces persistent insider net selling of approximately $230M over 24 months alongside a declining smart-money score from 0.0167 to 0.006.
Hold pending evidence that the margin recovery is sustainable on volume growth rather than pricing alone, and that the stock can reclaim its 200-day MA.
What could go wrong
- Cocoa cost reversal. FY2025 gross margin fell to 33.3% from FY2024's 47.3% on cocoa cost pressure; a renewed commodity spike would recompress margins just as recovery takes hold.
- Pricing without volume. Q2 2026 revenue grew 6.6% YoY but news reports flag falling volumes and higher logistics costs, raising questions about pricing elasticity and elasticity-driven trade-down.
- Valuation premium. P/S of 2.93 sits 36.8% above the peer median of 2.15, and the P/E of 23.85 is above the peer median of 22.37 despite FY2025 earnings being depressed.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net disposed approximately 1.12M shares worth $230M, with the Hershey Trust consistently selling through August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results (fiscal_year 2026 Q2 and fiscal_year 2025 Q2) · derived_metrics (fiscal_year 2025 and 2024) · technicals (as of 2026-09-01) · peer_relative. Orin's read on HSY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All HSY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $990.7M | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $835.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $748.3M | 0.0% of fund |
103 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 775 Form 4 filings, net −$261.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 45 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HSY
Orin answers questions about HSY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.8× | 27.1× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9× | 20.1× | — |
| P/S | 2.81× | 3.42× | — |
| P/B | 7.3× | 9.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.44σ from its own mean).
7.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$205
$185 – $240 · +21% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 24 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $34B | 22.8× | 14.9× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $40B | 22.5× | 8.9× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $36B | 197.7× | 48.8× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $43B | 31.9× | 21.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $28B | — | — | 32.8% | -13.6% | -8% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.6× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.3× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| SYYSysco Corporation | $37B | 21.0× | 13.1× | 18.5% | 2.1% | 75% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 4.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $355 | $176.01 · +102% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $415 | $176.01 · +136% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.