The Hershey Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Hershey's earnings recovery from the FY2025 cocoa-cost trough is materializing faster than expected — Q2 2026 EPS of $2.26 versus $0.31 a year earlier and a 32.9% earnings surprise mark the fourth consecutive beat, while Q2 2026 gross profit of $1.26B versus $796M in Q2 2025 confirms margin normalization toward FY2024 levels.
At $160.19, the stock trades at a PE of 21.7 versus the peer median of 21.4, with an RSI of 29.9 indicating oversold conditions, yet the price sits below both the 50-day MA of $176.22 and 200-day MA of $190.94 with a negative MACD histogram. Persistent insider net selling of approximately $271M over 24 months and a smart-money score declining to 0.006 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun suggest institutional caution despite the improving fundamentals. Hold pending evidence that the margin recovery is sustainable and the technical downtrend has reversed.
What could go wrong
- Cocoa cost reversal. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 33.3% from 47.3% in FY2024 on cocoa costs; a renewed spike would undo the Q2 2026 gross profit recovery to $1.26B from the Q2 2025 trough of $796M.
- Broken technical trend. Stock at $160.19 trades below both the 50-day MA of $176.22 and 200-day MA of $190.94 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.80, signaling sustained downward momentum.
- Persistent insider selling. 24-month insider net dispositions of approximately $271M with 695 sales versus 101 acquisitions and no cluster buy; the Hershey Trust continued routine selling into late September 2026.
- Valuation premium on sales. P/S of 2.67 sits 34.6% above the peer median of 1.98, limiting upside if margin recovery stalls and the earnings-based PE premium of only 1.5% re-widens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · earnings vs estimates · fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on HSY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 9.3% over twelve months, from $181.45 on 27 Oct 2025 to $164.51 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $236.28 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 30.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.7M, on 5 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HSY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $990.7M | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $835.2M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $748.3M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $614.1M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $527.1M | 0.0% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $507.3M | 0.1% |
106 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 878 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$304.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 50 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HSY
Orin answers questions about HSY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.1×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.3×below usual | 27.1× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 2.72×below usual | 3.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5×below usual | 20.1× | — |
| P/B | 7.2×below usual | 9.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $197 (from $178 to $240) — 20% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$197
$178 – $240 · +20% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.3× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (MDLZ 22.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $33B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $80B | 22.8× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $321 a share — 96% above the $164.06 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $321 | 96% above $164.06 |
| Levered | $320 | 95% above $164.06 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.