Humana Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Humana's H1 2026 results confirm a credible margin recovery from a dismal FY2025 — Q2 2026 operating income of $1.36B nearly doubled the $722M posted in Q2 2025, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in four consecutive quarters, most recently delivering $7.61 versus a $7.26 consensus.
However, the stock at $388.36 already trades at a PE of 36.47, a 34.3% premium to the peer median of 27.15, and sits well above its 200-day MA of $293.25, pricing in much of the turnaround. With FY2025 free cash flow having collapsed to $375M from $2.39B in 2024, an insider fiduciary-duty lawsuit filed in late September, and Medicare Advantage plan cuts creating near-term enrollment uncertainty ahead of the Nov. 6 Q3 report, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At a PE of 36.47 versus a peer median of 27.15 (34.3% premium) and EV/EBITDA of 17.59 versus 15.69, the stock leaves little room for disappointment on the Nov. 6 Q3 print.
- Legal overhang. A shareholder lawsuit alleging insider breaches of fiduciary duty was announced on Sept. 28, 2026, creating uncertainty around governance and potential settlement costs.
- Medicare Advantage headwinds. The company has signaled Medicare Advantage plan cuts for 2027, and open enrollment runs through Dec. 7, creating revenue uncertainty in Humana's core retail segment.
- Margin still depressed vs. history. FY2025 operating margin of 1.1% and net margin of 0.92% remain far below FY2022 levels of 3.8% and 3.0%, respectively, indicating the recovery is incomplete.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · technicals, 2 Oct. Orin's read on HUM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 41.9% over twelve months, from $292.34 on 27 Oct 2025 to $414.85 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $433.50 on 12 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.5M, on 27 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HUM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.7B | 0.5% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $1.5B | 4.7% |
| Sessa Capital IM | $1.5B | 24.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.2B | 0.1% |
102 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 94 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HUM
Orin answers questions about HUM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 38.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.1×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 38.6×above usual | 23.1× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 0.34×below usual | 0.53× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3×above usual | 13.6× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×below usual | 3.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $470 (from $300 to $596) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$470
$300 – $596 · +13% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 38.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUMHumana Inc. | $49B | 38.6× | 18.3× | 13.7% | 0.9% | 7% |
| CICigna Corporation | $80B | 13.3× | 11.3× | 9.4% | 2.1% | 14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | $34B | 23.2× | 7.6× | 11.7% | 0.8% | 7% |
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $104B | 9.4× | 8.5× | 14.2% | 2.6% | 14% |
| ELVElevance Health Inc. | $91B | 18.0× | 12.6× | 36.6% | 2.5% | 12% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $368B | 23.4× | 14.9× | 22.8% | 3.5% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 38.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now38.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $665 a share — 60% above the $414.59 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $665 | 60% above $414.59 |
| Levered | $458 | 10% above $414.59 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.