Orin
HUNNYSE·Chemicals

Huntsman Corporation HUN

Market cap $1.5BP/E —no earnings to divide byGross margin 13.5%Reports Thu 5 Nov, after the close
$8.84
+0.04 (+0.51%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $7.30 – $16.09
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Huntsman is a binary merger-arbitrage play on the pending Olin all-stock merger, with Q2 2026 showing marginal improvement—break-even EPS versus a $0.20 year-ago loss and a sales beat on higher volumes—against a structurally deteriorating business that posted FY2025 revenue of $5.68B (down from $8.02B in 2022), negative operating income of -$39M, and total debt of $2.40B. CEO Peter Huntsman's August 3 open-market purchase of 100,000 shares at $9.81 is a constructive signal, but the stock at $10.31 remains below both its 50-day ($11.78) and 200-day ($11.87) averages, and institutional smart money has turned slightly negative with fund count declining from 50 to 45 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.

Hold pending the stockholder vote outcome, as merger approval could unlock value while failure would expose a deeply challenged standalone chemical business with three consecutive years of revenue decline and two years of negative operating income.

What could go wrong

  • Merger rejection. If the Olin stockholder vote fails, HUN reverts to a standalone business with FY2025 operating income of -$39M and total debt of $2.40B against equity of $2.75B.
  • Demand deterioration. Management cited subdued demand growth, weaker North American housing indicators, and uneven consumer confidence on the Q2 2026 earnings call, with only relatively stable Q3 conditions expected.
  • Balance sheet erosion. Total debt rose from $1.95B in 2021 to $2.40B in 2025 while stockholders' equity fell from $4.38B to $2.75B over the same period, tightening the financial cushion.
  • Merger fairness litigation. Multiple law firms are investigating the Olin merger for potential securities law violations, which could delay or complicate the stockholder vote.

What would change my mind

Merger vote outcome. Stockholder approval of the Olin mergerbullish
Merger vote failure. Stockholder rejection or regulatory block of the Olin mergerbearish
Q3 2026 margin recovery. Sequential improvement in operating margins toward positive territorybullish
Olin share price decline. Significant decline in OLN share price reducing implied exchange value of the all-stock dealbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2022 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2021 · Zacks news article 2026-07-30. Orin's read on HUN; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$97.3M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$92.5M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$79.8M0.0% of fund
Invesco$60.7M0.0% of fund
Two Sigma Investments$58.8M0.0% of fund
State Street$54.6M0.0% of fund

58 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 134 Form 4 filings, net −$771K. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Basic Materials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
EV/EBITDA13.2×——
P/S0.26×——
P/B0.6×——
What the price assumes

2.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$12

$10 – $16 · +39% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 14 buy or overweight
  • 17 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 10.9× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
HUNHuntsman Corporation$2B—13.2×13.5%-2.9%-6%
ASPIASP Isotopes Inc. Common Stock$371M——18.3%-428.0%-63%
IPXIperionX Limited$658M——0.0%0.0%-35%
KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation$2B10.9×7.4×11.5%5.5%26%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 17.1×FY23 44.1×

What its sector has traded at

Basic Materials
FY14 23.8×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $8.84
52-week range$7 – $16
Analyst targets$10 – $16

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.