Huntsman Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Huntsman remains primarily a merger-arbitrage situation following the all-stock Olin merger of equals, which has cleared both shareholder approval and the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period with a first-half 2027 closing target and over $400M in expected synergies.
The standalone business is deeply impaired—FY2025 revenue of $5.68B is down roughly 29% from FY2022's $8.02B, with negative operating income of -$39M and total debt of $2.40B—but Q2 2026 showed tentative stabilization with +14.1% YoY revenue growth and positive operating income of $34M. At $8.14 the stock trades below its 50-day ($9.46) and 200-day ($11.86) moving averages with an RSI of 32, while CEO Peter Huntsman's August 2026 purchase of 100,000 shares at $9.81 signals insider confidence in deal completion; hold pending closure as a deal break would leave a heavily indebted chemical company with two consecutive years of operating losses.
What could go wrong
- Deal break risk. If the Olin merger fails to close, HUN reverts to a standalone chemical company with FY2025 operating income of -$39M, total debt of $2.40B, and negative operating margins for two consecutive years.
- Deteriorating fundamentals. Gross margin has compressed from 20.7% in FY2021 to 13.2% in FY2025, and Q1 2026 still showed negative operating income of -$9M despite revenue growth, indicating fragile profitability.
- Regulatory or closing delay. While the HSR waiting period has expired, additional regulatory approvals or operational hurdles could delay the first-half 2027 closing target, extending uncertainty.
- Leverage pressure. Total debt rose from $2.06B in FY2023 to $2.40B in FY2025 against declining equity from $3.25B to $2.75B, increasing balance sheet fragility if conditions worsen.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 14 Sep · news, 27 Aug · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results. Orin's read on HUN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 1.8% over twelve months, from $9.29 on 27 Oct 2025 to $9.12 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $15.89 on 15 Jun 2026; the last close is 42.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.1M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All HUN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $193.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $97.3M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $92.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $79.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $60.7M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $58.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $54.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $45.7M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $29.4M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $28.1M | 0.0% |
60 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 133 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $2.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about HUN
Orin answers questions about HUN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.27× its yearly sales — below its usual level (0.69×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.27×below usual | 0.69× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4×near usual | 13.5× | — |
| P/B | 0.6×below usual | 1.4× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 7.3× to 44.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $11 (from $9 to $14) — 21% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$11
$9 – $14 · +21% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 1 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (KALU 8.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUNHuntsman Corporation | $2B | lost money | 13.4× | 13.5% | −2.9% | −6% |
| ASPIASP Isotopes Inc. Common Stock | $316M | lost money | n/m | 18.3% | −428.0% | −63% |
| IPXIperionX Limited | $487M | lost money | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | −68% |
| KALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation | $2B | 8.7× | 6.1× | 10.7% | 4.8% | 24% |
- ASPI, IPX: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- ASPI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $77 a share — 758% above the $8.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $77 | 758% above $8.95 |
| Levered | $29 | 223% above $8.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.