Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKR
Interactive Brokers remains a best-in-class operator with an 86% operating margin in FY2025, essentially zero debt ($19M), and $15.7B in free cash flow on $10.2B revenue, but the stock at $98.19 trades at 36.8x earnings — 58% above the peer median of 23.2x — and 14.5x sales, 154% above peers, limiting upside even as EPS grew 28.3% in FY2025. Technicals have improved since the prior hold call with the stock back above its 50-day MA ($92.03) and a bullish MACD histogram of +0.70, and Vice Chairman Nemser's $70.7M acquisition on 2026-07-31 alongside rising smart money (score 0.0601, 70 funds as of Q2 2026) are encouraging, but 24-month net insider selling of -743K shares (-$15.3M) and the steep valuation premium keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/E of 36.8x sits 58% above the peer median of 23.2x and P/S of 14.5x is 154% above the peer median of 5.7x; any deceleration in growth could trigger a sharp re-rating lower.
- Interest-rate sensitivity. IBKR holds $930B in customer money and earns more from net interest income than trading commissions; a rate-cut cycle would directly compress this revenue stream.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 743K shares worth $15.3M across 90 dispositions vs. 35 acquisitions, including CEO and CFO sales on 2026-05-08.
- Margin-loan credit risk. Margin loans grew 49% YoY to $100.7B; a sharp market correction could trigger forced liquidations and credit losses on this book.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on IBKR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All IBKR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $925.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $845.1M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $759.4M | 0.0% of fund |
112 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 126 Form 4 filings, net −$15.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IBKR
Orin answers questions about IBKR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.5× | 24.3× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9× | 10.9× | — |
| P/S | 13.97× | 2.05× | — |
| P/B | 6.8× | 3.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.56σ from its own mean).
-2.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $15.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$110
$102 – $114 · +22% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. | $155B | 35.5× | 13.9× | 93.3% | 10.1% | 21% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $398B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| CBChubb Limited | $129B | 11.8× | 11.9× | 39.6% | 18.1% | 15% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $97B | 22.7× | 18.3× | 81.9% | 63.1% | 16% |
| HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc. | $109B | 52.3× | 53.4× | 81.5% | 42.0% | 23% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88B | 22.1× | 15.4× | 73.4% | 30.0% | 14% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $86B | 28.5× | 12.9× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 58.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $27 | $86.18 · −68% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $772 | $86.18 · +796% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.