Orin
IDANYSE·Regulated Electric

IDACORP, Inc. IDA

Market cap $7.4BP/E 20.7× trailingGross margin 21.7%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open
$127.58
−0.10 (−0.08%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $124.12 – $154.91
Watch
Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 17 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

IDACORP's Q2 2026 beat ($1.79 EPS vs. $1.75 consensus) and raised lower-end guidance underscore a reliable earnings trajectory—EPS compounded from $4.85 in 2021 to $5.90 in 2025—but the stock trades at a 10% PE premium and 21% EV/EBITDA premium to peers while free cash flow has deteriorated to -$577M in 2025 as capex ballooned to $1.18B against only $602M in operating cash flow. Total debt has climbed 83% from $2.0B in 2021 to $3.66B in 2025, and with MACD negative and price below the 50-day moving average, the positive earnings momentum is already largely reflected in a rich valuation.

The risk/reward remains balanced: earnings growth is real but not self-funding, and the premium multiple leaves limited margin for execution slips.

What could go wrong

  • Capex escalation outpacing rate recovery. Capex surged from $300M in 2021 to $1.18B in 2025 while operating cash flow only grew from $363M to $602M, creating a widening FCF gap that now requires sustained debt issuance to fund.
  • Valuation premium compression. IDA trades at 23.1x PE, 4.58x PS, and 14.85x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 20.9x, 2.69x, and 12.29x; any regulatory setback or growth deceleration could trigger multiple contraction toward peers.
  • Rising leverage and interest burden. Total debt increased from $2.0B (2021) to $3.66B (2025) against equity of $3.57B, pushing debt-to-equity above 1.0x and increasing sensitivity to interest-rate movements.
  • Persistent insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $8.8M in value despite net positive share count from option exercises; recent open-market sales by EVPs and VPs at ~$142 suggest limited insider conviction at current levels.

What would change my mind

FCF inflection. Annual capex declines or operating cash flow rises sufficiently to narrow FCF deficit below -$300M, indicating the investment cycle is peakingbullish
Regulatory rate case approval. Idaho PUC approves a constructive rate order that materially improves allowed ROE or accelerates cost recovery on new generation investmentbullish
Capex guidance increase. Management raises multi-year capex outlook beyond current $1.18B run-rate without commensurate rate relief, deepening the FCF gapbearish
Valuation re-rating vs. peers. PE premium to peer median widens beyond 15% (currently ~10.5%) without acceleration in EPS growth, making the stock increasingly expensive on a relative basisbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals, fiscal years 2021–2025 · Zacks news article, 2026-07-30 · Business Wire press release, 2026-07-30 · FMP fundamentals, fiscal year 2025. Orin's read on IDA; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$498.1M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$377.5M0.0% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$371.0M0.1% of fund
Fmr$334.0M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$333.8M0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$297.0M0.0% of fund

72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 161 Form 4 filings, net −$8.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about IDA

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about IDA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

· Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E20.7×—25.9×
EV/EBITDA13.8×——
P/S4.10×——
P/B1.9×——

What Wall Street published

13 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$155

$143 – $162 · +22% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 8 buy or overweight
  • 4 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.0× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
IDAIDACORP, Inc.$7B20.7×13.8×21.7%18.8%9%
BKHBlack Hills Corporation$5B17.6×12.6×42.9%13.0%8%
CMSCMS Energy Corporation$20B18.6×12.4×69.7%11.6%11%
MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.$3B16.9×11.8×85.4%19.5%11%
OGEOGE Energy Corp.$9B19.3×11.1×53.6%14.6%10%
PORPortland General Electric Company$5B20.3×9.6×44.4%7.4%6%
TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.$6B32.3×7.1×39.6%8.8%6%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 17.1×FY25 21.2×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $127.58
52-week range$124 – $155
Analyst targets$143 – $162
At sector P/E (26×)$160

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.