Intuit Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Intuit's FY2026 fundamentals (ended 31 Jul) remain strong — $21.4B revenue growing 13.9% YoY, $16.46 EPS up 20.4%, and $8.6B free cash flow at a 40.2% margin — but the stock has recovered from its prior oversold levels (RSI now 60.9 as of 16 Oct vs 33.0 at the prior verdict on 1 Oct) and trades at a 116% PE premium to the peer median (19.7x vs 9.1x).
Persistent insider selling (net -$364M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions) and management's lower DIY tax pricing strategy create FY2027 growth uncertainty, while the Sequence acquisition adds AI/mid-market optionality but also integration risk at a time when the stock sits below its 200-day moving average ($325 vs $375).
What could go wrong
- Tax pricing pressure. Lower DIY tax pricing via Credit Karma Tax could slow TurboTax revenue growth in FY2027, pressuring the Consumer segment that drives seasonal Q3 results.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $364M in shares with zero open-market acquisitions across 656 transactions, signaling no insider conviction at current levels.
- Valuation premium vs peers. At 19.7x PE vs a 9.1x peer median (116% premium), the stock prices in continued double-digit growth; any deceleration below 10% revenue growth would compress multiples meaningfully.
- Technical overhead. Trading at $325 vs a $375 200-day moving average, the stock faces overhead supply from prior holders, limiting near-term upside despite a bullish MACD histogram of 6.12.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 31 Jul · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on INTU; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 51.9% over twelve months, from $683.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $328.45 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $683.39 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 51.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 22.4M, on 21 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All INTU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.7B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.5B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Northern Trust | $814.0M | 0.1% |
140 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 660 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$364.0M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about INTU
Orin answers questions about INTU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 60.3×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.9×below usual | 60.3× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 4.09×below usual | 10.0× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6×below usual | 38.0× | — |
| P/B | 4.7×below usual | 8.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $380 (from $290 to $500) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$380
$290 – $500 · +16% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (FISV 9.1×, JKHY 22.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $88B | 19.9× | 12.6× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $25B | lost money | 10.9× | 61.5% | −11.4% | −6% |
| JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | $11B | 22.7× | 12.9× | 43.6% | 19.8% | 23% |
- GPN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $530 a share — 63% above the $325.69 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $530 | 63% above $325.69 |
| Levered | $768 | 136% above $325.69 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.