Intuit Inc. INTU
Intuit's FY2025 fundamentals (ended 2025-07-31) remain strong — $18.83B revenue at 15.6% growth, $13.67 EPS up 31.1%, and $6.08B free cash flow at a 32.3% FCF margin — and the stock trades at a 42.3% PE discount to the peer median (21.7x vs 37.6x). However, the Q4 earnings call confirmed growth deceleration to 14% revenue and 20% EPS for fiscal 2026, with management acknowledging slower growth in QuickBooks and TurboTax, and multiple securities class actions allege material misstatements about the tax business during the Aug 2025–May 2026 class period.
With the stock still 18% below its 200-day MA of $435.00, smart money at -0.0474 as of Q2 2026, and $282.8M in net insider selling over 24 months, the valuation discount is real but the legal and growth uncertainties warrant waiting for clarity before committing further capital.
What could go wrong
- Securities class action exposure. Multiple law firms filed class actions alleging material misstatements about TurboTax growth and revenue outlook (class period Aug 22, 2025–May 20, 2026), with a September 8, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline; adverse developments could prolong overhang.
- Growth deceleration in core franchises. Q4 earnings call highlighted fiscal 2026 revenue growth slowing to 14% from FY2025's 15.6%, with slower growth in QuickBooks and TurboTax prompting a strategic shift toward customer acquisition in FY2027.
- Technical damage not fully repaired. Stock at $358.06 remains well below its 200-day MA of $435.00 as of 2026-08-28, with MACD histogram negative at -1.10, suggesting the downtrend is not conclusively broken.
- Institutional and insider sentiment soft. Smart money score at -0.0474 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 71 to 66 over the past year, and insiders net sold $282.8M over 24 months.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · Defense World Q4 earnings call highlights, 2026-08-27 · PRNewsWire / GlobeNewsWire / GuruFocus, 2026-08-27. Orin's read on INTU; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All INTU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
137 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 610 Form 4 filings, net −$290.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about INTU
Orin answers questions about INTU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.4× | 60.8× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4× | 38.7× | — |
| P/S | 3.66× | 11.13× | — |
| P/B | 4.1× | 9.8× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−10.69σ from its own mean).
-3.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $8.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$380
$290 – $500 · +32% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $203B | 39.1× | 23.1× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | $106B | 24.1× | 19.3× | 88.5% | 64.6% | 193% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $195B | 21.6× | 14.4× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $146B | 87.4× | 43.4× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 55.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $464 | $282.63 · +64% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $587 | $282.63 · +108% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.