International Paper Company IP
International Paper remains a hold as the post-acquisition integration story is still in its loss-making phase — FY2025 produced a $2.82B operating loss on $24.9B of revenue (33.7% YoY growth), negative $159M free cash flow, and total debt nearly doubling to $10.8B — yet the stock at $37.93 trades at just 0.86x sales versus a 1.71x peer median, discounting much of the risk. Technicals have deteriorated since the prior verdict, with price now below both the 50-day ($39.58) and 200-day ($38.40) moving averages and RSI at 38.7, while Q2 2026 commentary cited execution 'stronger than expected' and BlackRock established a ~$1.94B position in Q2 2026.
The risk/reward is balanced: the P/S discount and improving smart-money score (0.0152 vs -0.0231 in Q4 2025) offer upside if integration synergies materialize, but deeply negative earnings, negative FCF, and elevated debt justify waiting for proof of sustained cash-flow inflection.
What could go wrong
- Debt burden and FCF drag. Total debt of $10.8B as of FY2025 nearly doubled from $5.85B in FY2024, and FY2025 free cash flow was negative $159M with capex of $1.857B, raising solvency and integration-cost concerns.
- Profitability collapse. FY2025 operating margin was -11.3% and net margin -14.1%, a sharp deterioration from FY2024's 2.6% operating margin, meaning the acquisition has yet to demonstrate earnings accretion.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $37.93 is below both the 50-day MA of $39.58 and 200-day MA of $38.40, with MACD histogram at -0.42 and RSI at 38.7, suggesting bearish momentum.
- Demand and operational headwinds. Q2 2026 earnings call highlighted softer demand in some markets, higher costs, and the temporary Pine Hill mill shutdown, any of which could delay the expected EBITDA recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal years 2025 and 2024. Orin's read on IP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All IP filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 5 Aug | International Paper reported a net loss of $12 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to net earnings of $75 million, or $0.14 per… | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | International Paper Company announced preliminary, unaudited financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, on July 30, 2026. | read |
| 13G/A | 28 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 17 Jul | International Paper Company appointed Katherine Collins and Lori J. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $3.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $948.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $689.5M | 0.1% of fund |
79 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 62 Form 4 filings, net $4.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IP
Orin answers questions about IP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 0.78× | 0.84× | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.32σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$50
$46 – $61 · +41% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 7 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPInternational Paper Company | $19B | — | — | 27.7% | -14.2% | -22% |
| AMCRAmcor plc | $20B | 17.9× | 10.0× | 20.0% | 4.7% | 9% |
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $22B | 28.6× | 16.9× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.4× | 13.0× | 69.4% | 9.1% | 56% |
| LULULululemon Athletica Inc. | $12B | 8.4× | 4.8× | 56.1% | 12.8% | 30% |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $17B | 15.4× | 11.0× | 22.2% | 12.1% | 31% |
| PKGPackaging Corporation of America | $21B | 31.2× | 13.7× | 20.1% | 7.2% | 15% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $21B | 21.0× | 14.8× | 70.3% | 11.8% | 36% |
| SWSmurfit Westrock Plc | $24B | 47.3× | 8.6× | 17.9% | 1.6% | 3% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $34 | $33.02 · +3% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $45 | $33.02 · +36% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.