IRNYSE·Industrial - Machinery

Ingersoll Rand Inc. IR

Market cap $29.6BP/E 31.1× trailingGross margin 37.9%Reports Thu 29 Oct, after the close

$75.67

−0.55 (−0.72%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $68.07 – $100.96

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Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 17 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Ingersoll Rand's Q2 2026 earnings beat and raised full-year revenue guidance to 4.5%–6.5% signal a potential inflection after a difficult FY2025 in which gross margin compressed from 43.8% to 38.5% and net income fell 30.7%. However, at 33.6x trailing earnings — a 19.5% premium to the peer median of 28.1x — the stock already prices in a margin recovery that has yet to materialize, while total debt has climbed to $4.85B from $2.77B in FY2023 and insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $52.7M over 24 months.

With MACD histogram negative (-0.75) and smart money scores fading from 0.049 to 0.006 over two quarters, the risk/reward is balanced; the call waits for evidence that ITS segment margins are bottoming before turning more constructive.

What could go wrong

Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin fell to 38.5% from 43.8% in FY2024; if ITS segment margin pressure continues, the premium valuation becomes harder to justify.
Leverage from M&A. Total debt rose to $4.85B in FY2025 from $2.77B in FY2023, and continued acquisition activity (e.g., Lone Star Blower in August 2026) could further strain the balance sheet if synergies underperform.
Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 354,840 shares worth $52.7M with no cluster buying, suggesting limited management conviction at current levels.
Valuation premium. P/E of 33.6x sits 19.5% above the peer median of 28.1x; any disappointment in order conversion or margin recovery could trigger a de-rating.

What would change my mind

ITS margin stabilization. Q3 2026 results show ITS segment operating margins holding flat or expanding sequentially, confirming the bottombullish

Debt reduction. Management commits to deleveraging below $4.5B using FCF, improving balance sheet flexibilitybullish

Guidance cut or order deceleration. Q3 2026 organic orders slow or full-year revenue guidance is trimmed, undermining the reacceleration narrativebearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2023. Orin's read on IR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All IR filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
13G/A	14 Aug	—	on file
13G/A	12 Aug	—	on file
13G/A	6 Aug	—	on file
10-Q	31 Jul	Ingersoll Rand Inc. reported Q2 2026 revenues of $2,048.8 million, an increase of 8.5% year-over-year, driven by $77.5 million in higher organic revenues and $53.4 million from…	read
8-K	30 Jul	Ingersoll Rand reported Q2 2026 results with $2,049 million in revenue, up 9% year-over-year, driven by 4% organic growth.	read
8-K	16 Jun	Ingersoll Rand Inc. stockholders approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan on June 11, 2026, effective immediately. The plan's material terms were previously detailed in the April…	read
13G	15 May	—	on file
13G/A	15 May	—	on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Capital World Investors	$2.3B	0.3% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/	$2.2B	0.2% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors	$2.1B	0.3% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$2.0B	0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$1.4B	0.1% of fund
State Street	$1.3B	0.0% of fund

88 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 243 Form 4 filings, net −$52.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	31.1×	43.5×	44.5×
EV/EBITDA	17.0×	19.7×	—
P/S	3.76×	4.55×	—
P/B	2.9×	3.1×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.98σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

10.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

15 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$91

$84 – $103 · +20% against today's price

How they rate it

8 buy or overweight
7 hold
0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 26.8× of 13 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
IRIngersoll Rand Inc.	$30B	31.1×	17.0×	37.9%	12.1%	9%
AMEAMETEK, Inc.	$56B	35.9×	24.1×	36.6%	20.0%	15%
AOSA. O. Smith Corporation	$8B	16.1×	11.6×	38.6%	13.1%	27%
DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.	$10B	22.1×	17.9×	34.6%	11.7%	28%
DOVDover Corporation	$25B	22.6×	15.0×	39.6%	13.5%	15%
EMREmerson Electric Co.	$87B	33.7×	19.1×	53.2%	13.8%	13%
ETNEaton Corporation plc	$170B	44.5×	29.6×	35.9%	12.8%	20%
FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.	$4B	27.5×	16.3×	35.5%	7.1%	12%
FLSFlowserve Corporation	$10B	26.8×	15.7×	35.1%	8.0%	17%
GGGGraco Inc.	$13B	24.3×	16.7×	52.6%	23.5%	20%
IEXIDEX Corporation	$17B	33.0×	20.1×	44.7%	14.5%	13%
ITTITT Inc.	$19B	41.4×	24.8×	34.6%	8.9%	10%
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.	$79B	24.7×	18.9×	44.2%	19.4%	102%
XYLXylem Inc.	$25B	25.9×	14.6×	39.2%	11.1%	9%

The median is of the 13 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY17 339.3×FY25 54.3×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials

FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$71	$71.75 · −0%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$62	$71.75 · −14%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $75.67

52-week range$68 – $101

Analyst targets$84 – $103

Standard DCF$71 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $71.75

Levered DCF$62 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $71.75

At own 5y-median P/E (44×)$107

At 5y P/E range (35–54×)$86 – $133

At sector P/E (45×)$109

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.