IREN Limited
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
IREN's sequential quarterly revenue decline from $240.3M in Q1 FY2026 to $137.2M in Q4, alongside an operating loss of -$1.05B for the full year and total debt exploding to $7.84B from $964M, signals deteriorating execution in a heavily leveraged AI infrastructure buildout.
The stock at $26.99 sits well below both its 50-day ($40.99) and 200-day ($45.37) moving averages with an RSI of 22.25, and with Zacks flagging $25-$30B in fiscal 2027 capex and Gartner warning that over 80% of neocloud providers could cease independent operations by 2030, the risk/reward remains unfavorable despite oversold technicals.
What could go wrong
- Debt sustainability. Total debt surged to $7.84B as of FY2026 ended 30 Jun from $964M the prior year, against negative free cash flow of -$2.23B, raising refinancing and solvency concerns.
- Revenue deceleration. Quarterly revenue fell sequentially every quarter from $240.3M in Q1 to $137.2M in Q4 FY2026, with Q4 revenue down 26.7% year-over-year.
- Neocloud viability. Gartner warned that more than 80% of neocloud providers could cease independent operations by 2030, and CoreWeave's bond yields are spiking, pressuring the entire sector.
- Capex escalation. Zacks reports $25-$30B in fiscal 2027 capex plans, dramatically scaling execution and financing risk beyond the already massive $4.33B spent in FY2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct · news, 15 Oct. Orin's read on IREN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 57.8% over twelve months, from $64.99 on 27 Oct 2025 to $27.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $76.41 on 5 Nov 2025; the last close is 64.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 112.6M, on 11 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All IREN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | $649.9M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $608.9M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $572.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $331.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $292.0M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $237.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $162.5M | 0.0% |
| Clear Street Group | $150.4M | 0.4% |
| Fred Alger Management | $131.4M | 0.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $123.9M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 23 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$72.8M. Of the 23 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IREN
Orin answers questions about IREN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 10.5× its yearly sales.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 35.5× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 10.5× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 1.2× | — | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 2.32× to 20.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 0.3× to 3.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $81 (from $40 to $100) — 195% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$81
$40 – $100 · +195% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. None of the 5 companies it is compared to made a profit, so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRENIREN Limited | $7B | lost money | n/m | 73.4% | −194.4% | −37% |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group | $2B | lost money | n/m | 0.5% | −55.1% | −55% |
| CIFRCipher Mining Inc. | $4B | lost money | n/m | −20.0% | −585.8% | −156% |
| HIVEHIVE Digital Technologies Ltd. | $554M | lost money | 80.6× | −32.5% | −98.0% | −60% |
| QMLSQumulusAI, Inc. Common Stock | $115M | — | — | — | — | — |
| WULFTeraWulf Inc. | $6B | lost money | n/m | 69.3% | below −1,000% | n/m |
- BTDR, CIFR, HIVE, WULF: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- QMLS: no figures on file.
- WULF: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- IREN, BTDR, CIFR, WULF: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- WULF: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $12 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.