IREN Limited IREN
IREN's FY2026 results (reported 2026-08-27) confirmed $4 billion in contracted ARR for 2026 capacity with $1 billion operating today following Microsoft's acceptance of Horizon 1, but the stock has fallen from approximately $43 to $35.45 as of 2026-08-28 after a Q4 revenue miss and a quarterly loss of $0.41 per share. FY2025 fundamentals showed genuine progress — revenue of $501 million at a 68.3% gross margin with positive net income of $86.9 million — but free cash flow remained deeply negative at -$1.13 billion against $1.37 billion in capex, total debt reached $964 million, and the stock trades at 886x earnings and 16.7x sales, far above peer medians of 14.2x and 1.9x respectively.
With shares now below both the 50-day ($41.62) and 200-day ($45.94) moving averages and MACD in bearish territory, the post-earnings technical breakdown alongside extreme valuation and still-negative FCF keeps this a hold pending evidence that contracted ARR converts to operating cash flow.
What could go wrong
- Capex and leverage. FY2025 free cash flow was -$1.13 billion against $1.37 billion in capital expenditure, and total debt ballooned to $964 million from $1.3 million the prior year, creating substantial balance sheet risk if GPU deployment timelines slip.
- Extreme valuation. At 886x trailing earnings, 16.7x price-to-sales, and 30.2x EV/EBITDA, IREN trades at a massive premium to peer medians of 14.2x PE, 1.9x PS, and 15.6x EV/EBITDA, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Revenue miss and quarterly loss. Q4 FY2026 results showed a loss of $0.41 per share and missed consensus revenue estimates, raising questions about whether the $4 billion contracted ARR will convert on schedule.
- Technical deterioration. As of 2026-08-28 the stock at $35.45 trades below both its 50-day MA of $41.62 and 200-day MA of $45.94, with RSI at 40.2 and a negative MACD histogram of -0.36.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · Zacks and Benzinga news articles 2026-08-27. Orin's read on IREN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All IREN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America /De/ | $649.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $572.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $331.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $292.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $237.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $162.5M | 0.0% of fund |
91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 23 Form 4 filings, net −$72.8M. Of the 23 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IREN
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 23.75× | — | — |
| P/B | 4.1× | — | — |
-5.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$81
$40 – $100 · +72% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRENIREN Limited | $17B | — | — | 68.9% | -99.4% | -23% |
| KEYKeyCorp | $22B | 11.7× | 18.3× | 64.5% | 19.4% | 10% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 16.2× | 12.3× | 48.5% | 9.9% | 13% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.