Orin
IRMNYSE·REIT - Specialty

Iron Mountain Incorporated IRM

Market cap $33.9BP/E 82.2× trailingGross margin 54.2%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$113.88
−1.22 (−1.06%)live 09:35 ET
52-wk $77.77 – $134.68
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Iron Mountain's data center buildout is genuinely accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue rose 19% to $2.03B with data center revenue up 39% YoY and 71.2% of the development pipeline pre-leased — but the capital intensity remains extreme: FY2025 free cash flow was -$932M against $2.27B in CapEx, total debt reached $19.1B against negative equity of -$981M, and insiders net sold $207.6M over 24 months. At 87.2x earnings (188.5% above the peer median of 30.2x), the stock prices in sustained hyper-growth that the deeply negative free cash flow and mounting leverage do not yet justify, even with management's 2026 guidance of $7.94–$8.01B revenue.

The growth narrative is real and the smart money score is improving (0.0342 as of Q2 2026), but the risk/reward at this valuation warrants patience rather than conviction in either direction.

What could go wrong

  • Capital intensity and negative FCF. FY2025 free cash flow was -$932M with CapEx of $2.27B against operating cash flow of $1.34B; if data center buildout does not generate commensurate returns, the leverage profile becomes unsustainable.
  • Valuation premium at risk. PE of 87.2x sits 188.5% above the peer median of 30.2x; any deceleration in data center leasing or revenue growth could trigger sharp multiple compression given the stock's 42.8% YTD gain.
  • Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $207.6M over 24 months across 148 dispositions; the CEO exercised options at $37 and sold at $121–123 in August 2026, and the CCO sold 13% of his direct equity holdings.
  • Balance sheet stress. Total debt of $19.1B against negative stockholders' equity of -$981M limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if rates remain elevated.

What would change my mind

FCF inflection. Quarterly free cash flow turns positive as data center capacity comes online and CapEx normalizes from the $2.27B FY2025 peakbullish
Data center leasing deceleration. Pre-leased pipeline percentage drops below 60% or data center revenue growth slows below 25% YoYbearish
Deleveraging commitment. Management announces a debt reduction plan or uses data center cash flows to pay down the $19.1B debt loadbullish
EPS deterioration at premium multiple. EPS continues declining (FY2025 EPS of $0.49 was down 19.7% YoY) while the stock holds above 80x earningsbearish

Where this comes from: news snippets (Seeking Alpha, MarketBeat, Aug 2026) · FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative · insider summary + transactions. Orin's read on IRM; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.2B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.4B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.2B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.1B0.1% of fund
Fmr$994.4M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$559.2M0.0% of fund

88 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 246 Form 4 filings, net −$213.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 28 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E82.2×110.9×56.8×
EV/EBITDA21.4×20.8×
P/S4.53×3.55×

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.32σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

21 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$143

$132$155 · +25% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 14 buy or overweight
  • 2 hold
  • 5 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 28.4× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
IRMIron Mountain Incorporated$34B82.2×21.4×54.2%5.5%-38%
AVBAvalonBay Communities, Inc.$26B25.2×18.8×52.7%33.4%9%
CCICrown Castle Inc.$31B28.4×19.5×63.2%25.8%-52%
CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.$11B153.8×27.1×76.5%2.1%1%
EQREquity Residential$24B27.6×14.3×46.0%27.9%8%
EXRExtra Space Storage Inc.$28B29.5×13.3×23.0%28.0%7%
SBACSBA Communications Corporation$18B18.3×15.7×63.9%34.5%-21%
VICIVICI Properties Inc.$26B9.2×11.9×99.3%67.5%10%
VTRVentas, Inc.$42B157.5×22.3×-2.6%4.1%2%
WYWeyerhaeuser Company$15B32.1×17.4×13.2%6.8%5%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 189.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 23.1×FY25 169.3×

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$-28$124.62 · −123%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-107$124.62 · −186%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $113.88
52-week range$78 – $135
Analyst targets$132 – $155
Standard DCF$-28 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $124.62
Levered DCF$-107 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $124.62
At own 5y-median P/E (111×)$155
At 5y P/E range (26–171×)$36 – $240
At sector P/E (57×)$79

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.